21 March 2020 New York State: How many are likely to be inflected with the novel CoronaVirus?

Here's the current situation as reported today by the New York Times:

• Deaths: 43
• Confirmed CoronaVirus cases: 6,211

With an infection rate of 2.5, here's what I suggest is the actual situation:

• Total number infected: 24,952 ... so the number of confirmed cases is about 25% of those actually infected.
• Projected number of deaths in 15 to 17 days: 425
• The number who will require hospitalization: 4,242

Update: 20 March 2020 Projected US Numbers Infected by the Novel CoronaVirus

Update: As of 20 March 2020 1600 GMT over 200 people (I entered 202 into the model) have been reported to have died in the US of COVID-19. Here are my projections for an 1) an infection rate of 2.0, 2) 2.5 and 3) 3.0. Infection rate is the number of people an infected person will infect. I have seen reports of 2.0 to 3.0 as the infection rate.

Infection rate of 2.0

• Total number infected as of today: 57,988
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1143
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 9858

Infection rate of 2.5

• Total number infected as of today: 101,301
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1996
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 17,221

Infection rate of 3.0

• Total number infected as of today: 159,797
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 3149
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 27,166

Social distancing is important as these numbers show. Do what you can not to become someone included in these numbers. 

COVID-19 Further Update: 18 March 2020 US Deaths at 132, Projected Number of Infected Report

As of today, I saw a report that 116 people have been reported to have died in the US of COVID-19. Here are my projections for an 1) an infection rate of 2.0, 2) 2.5 and 3) 3.0. Infection rate is the number of people an infected person will infect. I have seen reports of 2.0 to 3.0 as an infection rate.

Infection rate of 2.0

• Total number infected as of today: 51120
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 747
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 8690

Infection rate of 2.5

• Total number infected as of today: 89302
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1304
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 15,181

Infection rate of 3.0

• Total number infected as of today: 140,869
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 2058
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 23,948

Now, does everyone understand why cities are being locked down?

Death from Despair Part 5: Analysis by Race, by Race Crossed with Gender, by Race, Gender and Age (Analysis of American Indian/Alaskan Native and White Males by Age)

1. Analysis by Race

American Indians/Alaskan Natives consistently have the highest rate of death. That is followed closely by Whites. That the Total line closely follows the White line is unsurprising given that Whites form the largest racial group.  African Americans and Asians fall below the Total line. As we have seen earlier the line for African Americans has risen sharply in the last few years because of sharp increase in drug-related deaths. Asians may have the lowest death rate however, the death rate for Asians continues to rise, not at the accelerated rates of the three groups, but are rising nevertheless. 

Of concern, deaths from despair continue to rise for everyone no matter your racial group.

2. By Race and Gender

I further subdivided the data by gender. In the figure below, females are represented by squares and males by circles. 

Every group has shown an increase in deaths from despair, even female Asians who clearly show the lowest rate of increase. As a whole, females show a lower death rate than males. One notable exception is that male Asians have a lower death rate than American Indian/Alaskan Natives and female Whites.

What I find particularly striking about this graph are the lines for American Indian/Alaskan Native Males and White Males. Both lines follow a steeper trajectory with strikingly higher death rates than the other groups. What I find striking as well is that these two lines closely follow each other. And for those two reasons I decided to drill into the data from these two groups with Age as a factor.

3. Analysis of American Indian/Alaskan Native Males and White Males

I added age as an analysis factor for these two groups. The figure below shows the results of that analysis.

American Indian/Alaskan Native male lines have downward pointing triangles. White males have circles. 

Something to note: American Indians/Alaskan Natives have jagged lines. The reason is that the underlying numbers are relatively small so a relatively small change can seem to show large swings in the crude rate. That being the case one needs to focus not on the swings but on the overall trends that unfortunately point strongly upward.

I selected most productive years in 10 year age ranges that consist of the 10 year age ranges of:

• 25-34
• 35-44
• 45-54
• 55-64

For both American Indian/Alaskan Native males and White males the most deadly years range from 45 to 64. For American Indian/Alaska Natives males those years have proven particularly deadly, especially in recent years. And it is clear, that for American Indians/Alaskan Native males, deaths from despair begin relatively early in life and become more strongly pronounced as they grow older.

Something that interested me was the American Indian/Alaskan Native and Whites show similar patterns in the 25 to 34 age range. 

Two more figures separately show American Indians/Alaskan Native and White males.

These two groups are clearly at the most risk for death from despair and the numbers are staggeringly high.

This series of articles will continue. 

Update: 17 March 2020 COVID-19 Model Prediction of Number Based On Current Number of Deaths -- 88 to 104 deaths today and why social distancing is important.

Further updates below.
Here's what my model predicts as of GMT 1830, 17 March 2020: 

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	27	182	1032	153
70-79	0.08	22	275	1556	124
60-69	0.036	14	389	2200	79
50-59	0.013	10	769	4351	57
40-49	0.004	7	1750	9899	40
30-39	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
20-29	0.002	3	1500	8485	17
10-19	0.002	1	500	2828	6
0-9	0.0	0	921	5208	0
Infection rate	2.0
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8286
Total Infected Now	46874
Total number of deaths	88
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	498
Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value	7969

Predicted Total of infected in the US as of the time of publication: 46,874. Projected number of deaths in 2.5 weeks is 498. The number that will need hospitalization is 7969. 

A Further Update -- Just Passed 100 Deaths Today

Projected number of currently infected: 48,348. Projected number of deaths in approximately 2.5 weeks: 566. The number that will need hospitalization of those currently infected: 8219.

Another Update 104 deaths and a change in the infection rate:

As well as changing the number of deaths, I changed the infection rate to 2.5. Here are the results:

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	36	243	2404	356
70-79	0.08	25	313	3088	247
60-69	0.036	17	472	4667	168
50-59	0.013	11	846	8362	109
40-49	0.004	7	1750	17294	69
30-39	0.002	4	2000	19764	40
20-29	0.002	3	1500	14823	30
10-19	0.002	1	500	4941	10
0-9	0.0	0	953	9418	0
Infection rate	2.5
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8577
Total Infected Now	84760
Total number of deaths	104
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	1028
Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value	14409

A change in the infection rate from 2.0 to 2.5 nearly doubles the number of infected to 84,760. The projected number of deaths in 2 to 2.5 weeks is 1028. The projected number of people who will require hospitalization is 14,409. 

Change the infection rate to 2.0 and the results are the following:

• Number of infected: 48,520
• Number of deaths: 588
• Number requiring hospitalization: 8248

This is why the San Francisco area is on lock-down. This is why bars and restaurants are being shutdown. That's why there are no NBA games, etc. Social distancing can have a major effect on how this will play out.

However, it doesn't fix the failures of the Trump Administration, Trump's outlandish incompetence. Trump has been a catastrophic failure as a businessman and he has transferred that complete lack of competence to the Presidency. Let's all hope for the sake of the World, that Trump does not get another 4 years as President. What I would like to see would be for Trump to get 20 years (at least) in prison along with many other of his associates of what can only be considered to be a nightmare of an administration. 

Update -- COVID-19 Model: Estimated Number of Infected Individuals Based on the Number of Deaths

I've had a chance to examine my model in light of evidence from South Korea that I collected from the Johns Hopkins CoronaVirus Resource Center (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.) South Korea has clearly had one of the best if not the best COVID-19 mitigation strategy that has a centerpiece aggressive testing. Therefore, South Korea's numbers should be the most up to date and accurate.

As of 16 March 2020, South Korea's numbers are:

• 8,162 infected
• 75 deaths

Johns Hopkins doesn't breakdown the deaths by age group, however, I entered what I believe are realistic numbers into the fields. Here are the results:

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	21	142	803	119
70-79	0.08	17	213	1202	96
60-69	0.036	13	361	2043	74
50-59	0.013	8	615	3481	45
40-49	0.004	7	1750	9899	40
30-39	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
20-29	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
10-19	0.002	1	500	2828	6
0-9	0.0	0	948	5360	0
Infection rate	2.0
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8528
Total Infected Now	48244
Total number of deaths	75
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	424

The numbers to focus on are "Total Infected based on current number of deaths" and the "Total number of deaths." I'm assuming that the total number of infected in South Korea is close to being complete. I'm estimating that South Korea has 8528 infected individuals. However, because of the lack of testing in the US, I would estimate that when the US reaches 75 deaths, that in reality there are 48244 infected. And that the US will see 424 deaths within 2.5 weeks.

I noted one flaw in my estimator. Every cell of reported deaths from 80 plus to 10-19 must have a number other than zero to achieve a reasonable number of infected estimate for that age group. I'll see if I can build in correction mechanism that would enable one to enter zero for an age group and still have a reasonable estimate of the number who are infected. 

Update: Estimate of the Number of Infected in the US Based on Current Number of Deaths (16 March 2020)

As of today, the number of COVID-19 deaths is 74. Based on that information, here's what I estimate to be the number of infected.

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	21	142	803	119
70-79	0.08	17	213	1202	96
60-69	0.036	13	361	2043	74
50-59	0.013	8	615	3481	45
40-49	0.004	7	1750	9899	40
30-39	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
20-29	0.002	3	1500	8485	17
10-19	0.002	1	500	2828	6
0-9	0.0	0	885	5007	0
Infection rate	2.0
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	7966
Total Infected Now	45062
Total number of deaths	74
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	419

I decided to use fundamentally the same distribution pattern as I estimated for South Korea. These are the results:

• The estimate for the number infected throughout the US this day is 45,062. 
• 7966 people were infected 2.5 weeks ago.
• Approximately 2.5 weeks from today (end of March, first of April) I estimate 419 people will have died from COVID-19. I suspect that's a low estimate. If 17% of those infected require hospitalization at one point or another, I suspect that many will not receive treatment because of lack of resources and personnel. And many more will die due only to the lack of treatment because of the lack of preparation. 

A Second Update Regarding the US (16 March 2020)

I just heard that the number of deaths is 80. So based on that new number, these are my estimates:

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	24	162	917	136
70-79	0.08	18	225	1273	102
60-69	0.036	13	361	2043	74
50-59	0.013	10	769	4351	57
40-49	0.004	7	1750	9899	40
30-39	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
20-29	0.002	3	1500	8485	17
10-19	0.002	1	500	2828	6
0-9	0.0	0	908	5139	0
Infection rate	2.0
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8176
Total Infected Now	46250
Total number of deaths	80
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	453

• The estimate for the number infected throughout the US this day is 46,250.
• 8176 people were infected 2.5 weeks ago.
• Approximately 2.5 weeks from today (end of March, first of April) I estimate 453 people will have died from COVID-19.