Showing posts with label Johns Hopkins CoronaVirus Resource Center. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Johns Hopkins CoronaVirus Resource Center. Show all posts

Monday, March 16, 2020

Update -- COVID-19 Model: Estimated Number of Infected Individuals Based on the Number of Deaths

I've had a chance to examine my model in light of evidence from South Korea that I collected from the Johns Hopkins CoronaVirus Resource Center (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.) South Korea has clearly had one of the best if not the best COVID-19 mitigation strategy that has a centerpiece aggressive testing. Therefore, South Korea's numbers should be the most up to date and accurate.

As of 16 March 2020, South Korea's numbers are:

  • 8,162 infected
  • 75 deaths
Johns Hopkins doesn't breakdown the deaths by age group, however, I entered what I believe are realistic numbers into the fields. Here are the results:


Age Ranges, YearsRate of DeathReported DeathsProjected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)Projected number of who are infected nowProjected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus0.14821142803119
70-790.0817213120296
60-690.03613361204374
50-590.0138615348145
40-490.00471750989940
30-390.002420001131423
20-290.002420001131423
10-190.002150028286
0-90.0094853600






Infection rate2.0




Average time of illness until death (weeks)2.5




Total Infected based on current number of deaths8528




Total Infected Now48244




Total number of deaths75




Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals424






The numbers to focus on are "Total Infected based on current number of deaths" and the "Total number of deaths." I'm assuming that the total number of infected in South Korea is close to being complete. I'm estimating that South Korea has 8528 infected individuals. However, because of the lack of testing in the US, I would estimate that when the US reaches 75 deaths, that in reality there are 48244 infected. And that the US will see 424 deaths within 2.5 weeks.

I noted one flaw in my estimator. Every cell of reported deaths from 80 plus to 10-19 must have a number other than zero to achieve a reasonable number of infected estimate for that age group. I'll see if I can build in correction mechanism that would enable one to enter zero for an age group and still have a reasonable estimate of the number who are infected. 


Update: Estimate of the Number of Infected in the US Based on Current Number of Deaths (16 March 2020)


As of today, the number of COVID-19 deaths is 74. Based on that information, here's what I estimate to be the number of infected.


Age Ranges, YearsRate of DeathReported DeathsProjected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)Projected number of who are infected nowProjected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus0.14821142803119
70-790.0817213120296
60-690.03613361204374
50-590.0138615348145
40-490.00471750989940
30-390.002420001131423
20-290.00231500848517
10-190.002150028286
0-90.0088550070






Infection rate2.0




Average time of illness until death (weeks)2.5




Total Infected based on current number of deaths7966




Total Infected Now45062




Total number of deaths74




Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals419





I decided to use fundamentally the same distribution pattern as I estimated for South Korea. These are the results:


  • The estimate for the number infected throughout the US this day is 45,062. 
  • 7966 people were infected 2.5 weeks ago.
  • Approximately 2.5 weeks from today (end of March, first of April) I estimate 419 people will have died from COVID-19. I suspect that's a low estimate. If 17% of those infected require hospitalization at one point or another, I suspect that many will not receive treatment because of lack of resources and personnel. And many more will die due only to the lack of treatment because of the lack of preparation. 


A Second Update Regarding the US (16 March 2020)


I just heard that the number of deaths is 80. So based on that new number, these are my estimates:

Age Ranges, YearsRate of DeathReported DeathsProjected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)Projected number of who are infected nowProjected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus0.14824162917136
70-790.08182251273102
60-690.03613361204374
50-590.01310769435157
40-490.00471750989940
30-390.002420001131423
20-290.00231500848517
10-190.002150028286
0-90.0090851390






Infection rate2.0




Average time of illness until death (weeks)2.5




Total Infected based on current number of deaths8176




Total Infected Now46250




Total number of deaths80




Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals453




  • The estimate for the number infected throughout the US this day is 46,250.
  • 8176 people were infected 2.5 weeks ago.
  • Approximately 2.5 weeks from today (end of March, first of April) I estimate 453 people will have died from COVID-19.