Update: 23 March 2020, the model predicted 520 deaths for today. The number of deaths as of this evening: 520. Two days, two accurate predictions. No change to the trend line equation I am sorry to report.
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I nearly passed out when I saw this.
The equation that defines the data for 2/29/2020 to 3/22/2020 is:
y=2.1183 times e to the power of .2293*X. X is an index number beginning with 1.
Initially, I calculated the trend line using the number of deaths up to 3/21. A few minutes later I found out the current number of deaths (3/22). I recalculated the trend line based on the additional data. The trend line remained the same. I have maintained the calculated value for 3/22 just to show that the trend line appears to be a reasonable projection of the future ... if we continue to do what we've been doing.
Fortunately, some states have taken action.
But, please note that the projection is for something on the order of a total of a million deaths just a little over a month. And one percent of the US population dead by the end of April.
According to the CDC, 675,000 died in the US because of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic when the population was approximately 103 million. So kind of numbers that this trend line is not all that out of the realm of possibility.
Given the number of deaths and their rapid acceleration, I have to wonder about the actual infection rate in the US. These numbers suggest that many, many more people are infected with COVID-19 than anyone has yet considered. Instead of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, it could be in the millions.
I'll continue to enter numbers into the spreadsheet day by day so see if the trend line changes ... for the better?
----------------
I nearly passed out when I saw this.
The equation that defines the data for 2/29/2020 to 3/22/2020 is:
y=2.1183 times e to the power of .2293*X. X is an index number beginning with 1.
Initially, I calculated the trend line using the number of deaths up to 3/21. A few minutes later I found out the current number of deaths (3/22). I recalculated the trend line based on the additional data. The trend line remained the same. I have maintained the calculated value for 3/22 just to show that the trend line appears to be a reasonable projection of the future ... if we continue to do what we've been doing.
Fortunately, some states have taken action.
But, please note that the projection is for something on the order of a total of a million deaths just a little over a month. And one percent of the US population dead by the end of April.
According to the CDC, 675,000 died in the US because of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic when the population was approximately 103 million. So kind of numbers that this trend line is not all that out of the realm of possibility.
Given the number of deaths and their rapid acceleration, I have to wonder about the actual infection rate in the US. These numbers suggest that many, many more people are infected with COVID-19 than anyone has yet considered. Instead of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, it could be in the millions.
I'll continue to enter numbers into the spreadsheet day by day so see if the trend line changes ... for the better?
| Date | Cumulative Deaths Actual | Cumulative Deaths Projected |
| 2/29/2020 | 1 | 1 |
| 3/1/2020 | 1 | 1 |
| 3/2/2020 | 6 | 6 |
| 3/3/2020 | 9 | 9 |
| 3/4/2020 | 11 | 11 |
| 3/5/2020 | 12 | 12 |
| 3/6/2020 | 15 | 15 |
| 3/7/2020 | 19 | 19 |
| 3/8/2020 | 22 | 22 |
| 3/9/2020 | 26 | 26 |
| 3/10/2020 | 30 | 30 |
| 3/11/2020 | 38 | 38 |
| 3/12/2020 | 41 | 41 |
| 3/13/2020 | 49 | 49 |
| 3/14/2020 | 57 | 57 |
| 3/15/2020 | 68 | 68 |
| 3/16/2020 | 86 | 86 |
| 3/17/2020 | 109 | 109 |
| 3/18/2020 | 150 | 150 |
| 3/19/2020 | 207 | 207 |
| 3/20/2020 | 256 | 256 |
| 3/21/2020 | 302 | 302 |
| 3/22/2020 | 414 | 413 |
| 3/23/2020 |
520
| 520 |
| 3/24/2020 | 654 | |
| 3/25/2020 | 823 | |
| 3/26/2020 | 1,035 | |
| 3/27/2020 | 1,301 | |
| 3/28/2020 | 1,637 | |
| 3/29/2020 | 2,059 | |
| 3/30/2020 | 2,589 | |
| 3/31/2020 | 3,256 | |
| 4/1/2020 | 4,096 | |
| 4/2/2020 | 5,151 | |
| 4/3/2020 | 6,479 | |
| 4/4/2020 | 8,148 | |
| 4/5/2020 | 10,248 | |
| 4/6/2020 | 12,889 | |
| 4/7/2020 | 16,211 | |
| 4/8/2020 | 20,389 | |
| 4/9/2020 | 25,644 | |
| 4/10/2020 | 32,252 | |
| 4/11/2020 | 40,565 | |
| 4/12/2020 | 51,019 | |
| 4/13/2020 | 64,167 | |
| 4/14/2020 | 80,704 | |
| 4/15/2020 | 101,503 | |
| 4/16/2020 | 127,663 | |
| 4/17/2020 | 160,564 | |
| 4/18/2020 | 201,944 | |
| 4/19/2020 | 253,989 | |
| 4/20/2020 | 319,447 | |
| 4/21/2020 | 401,775 | |
| 4/22/2020 | 505,320 | |
| 4/23/2020 | 635,551 | |
| 4/24/2020 | 799,344 | |
| 4/25/2020 | 1,005,350 | |
| 4/26/2020 | 1,264,448 | |
| 4/27/2020 | 1,590,321 | |
| 4/28/2020 | 2,000,177 | |
| 4/29/2020 | 2,515,661 | |
| 4/30/2020 | 3,163,995 |
And if these numbers don't get your attention, here are the numbers for the first three days in May.
| 5/1/2020 | 3,979,417 | |
| 5/2/2020 | 5,004,988 | |
| 5/3/2020 | 6,294,869 |
I find it difficult to believe that the US is going to reach these numbers, but this is about 2 percent of the population.
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