I have two models that I'm currently using to project the number of COVID-19 deaths for the first half of April. Here are the numbers:
| 3/30/2020 | 3,179 | 31 | 2849 | |
| 3/31/2020 | 4,017 | 32 | 3600 | |
| 4/1/2020 | 5,074 | 33 | 4548 | |
| 4/2/2020 | 6,410 | 34 | 5746 | |
| 4/3/2020 | 8,097 | 35 | 7259 | |
| 4/4/2020 | 10,229 | 36 | 9171 | |
| 4/5/2020 | 12,922 | 37 | 11587 | |
| 4/6/2020 | 16,324 | 38 | 14639 | |
| 4/7/2020 | 20,621 | 39 | 18495 | |
| 4/8/2020 | 26,050 | 40 | 23366 | |
| 4/9/2020 | 32,908 | 41 | 29521 | |
| 4/10/2020 | 41,572 | 42 | 37296 | |
| 4/11/2020 | 52,516 | 43 | 47120 | |
| 4/12/2020 | 66,342 | 44 | 59530 | |
| 4/13/2020 | 83,807 | 45 | 75210 | |
| 4/14/2020 | 105,871 | 46 | 95020 | |
| 4/15/2020 | 133,743 | 47 | 120047 |
The first column is of course the date. The third column is the projected deaths from what I call the "aggressive model." The aggressive model has over the last week been more accurate than the "conservative model." The number of deaths for the conservative model are found in the fifth column. (The numbers in the fourth column are "index" values used in the computations.)
Both models predict that around 4/4 or 4/5, the number of US deaths will be near 10K. And around 4/14 and 4/15 the number of deaths will be around 100K. I'm hoping that things will crest soon and we will not see these numbers anytime soon. But for now I don't see the curves beginning to asymptote. If they do not begin to asymptote, we could see a million deaths in the US from COVID-19 by the end of April or the first part of June.
UPDATE:
I stopped showing my projections above on 4/15 because the numbers were frightening enough. However, the Federal Government has made an announcement that if everything from now goes perfectly, we should expect the number of deaths to be up to 200,000. I believe they're making the statement that they did because they believe that the predicted number of deaths from COVID-19 are pretty much "baked in." Given that, I decided to show more of what my models predict, this time to 4/30. I begin with today's number of deaths (2nd column) and go from there. To review, the aggressive model is the 3rd column and the conservative model is the 5th column. Both models predict over 2 million deaths by 4/30. I believe the limiting factor on this many deaths in this short a time is the number people an infected person can infect. At some point the pool people who can be infected because so many are infected becomes increasingly limited. Where that comes into play is something I haven't had a chance to work through. I suspect that it something on the order of when 30 to 50 percent of the population becomes infected.
UPDATE:
I stopped showing my projections above on 4/15 because the numbers were frightening enough. However, the Federal Government has made an announcement that if everything from now goes perfectly, we should expect the number of deaths to be up to 200,000. I believe they're making the statement that they did because they believe that the predicted number of deaths from COVID-19 are pretty much "baked in." Given that, I decided to show more of what my models predict, this time to 4/30. I begin with today's number of deaths (2nd column) and go from there. To review, the aggressive model is the 3rd column and the conservative model is the 5th column. Both models predict over 2 million deaths by 4/30. I believe the limiting factor on this many deaths in this short a time is the number people an infected person can infect. At some point the pool people who can be infected because so many are infected becomes increasingly limited. Where that comes into play is something I haven't had a chance to work through. I suspect that it something on the order of when 30 to 50 percent of the population becomes infected.
| 3/30/2020 | 3,148 | 3,179 | 31 | 2,849 |
| 3/31/2020 | 4,017 | 32 | 3,600 | |
| 4/1/2020 | 5,074 | 33 | 4,548 | |
| 4/2/2020 | 6,410 | 34 | 5,746 | |
| 4/3/2020 | 8,097 | 35 | 7,259 | |
| 4/4/2020 | 10,229 | 36 | 9,171 | |
| 4/5/2020 | 12,922 | 37 | 11,587 | |
| 4/6/2020 | 16,324 | 38 | 14,639 | |
| 4/7/2020 | 20,621 | 39 | 18,495 | |
| 4/8/2020 | 26,050 | 40 | 23,366 | |
| 4/9/2020 | 32,908 | 41 | 29,521 | |
| 4/10/2020 | 41,572 | 42 | 37,296 | |
| 4/11/2020 | 52,516 | 43 | 47,120 | |
| 4/12/2020 | 66,342 | 44 | 59,530 | |
| 4/13/2020 | 83,807 | 45 | 75,210 | |
| 4/14/2020 | 105,871 | 46 | 95,020 | |
| 4/15/2020 | 133,743 | 47 | 120,047 | |
| 4/16/2020 | 168,952 | 48 | 151,667 | |
| 4/17/2020 | 213,432 | 49 | 191,615 | |
| 4/18/2020 | 269,621 | 50 | 242,085 | |
| 4/19/2020 | 340,603 | 51 | 305,848 | |
| 4/20/2020 | 430,271 | 52 | 386,405 | |
| 4/21/2020 | 543,547 | 53 | 488,181 | |
| 4/22/2020 | 686,644 | 54 | 616,764 | |
| 4/23/2020 | 867,414 | 55 | 779,214 | |
| 4/24/2020 | 1,095,773 | 56 | 984,453 | |
| 4/25/2020 | 1,384,253 | 57 | 1,243,749 | |
| 4/26/2020 | 1,748,678 | 58 | 1,571,343 | |
| 4/27/2020 | 2,209,044 | 59 | 1,985,221 | |
| 4/28/2020 | 2,790,609 | 60 | 2,508,112 |
