Showing posts with label CDC Centers for Disease Control. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CDC Centers for Disease Control. Show all posts

Monday, March 30, 2020

30 March 2020 Projected Number of US Deaths from Now into April 2020

I have two models that I'm currently using to project the number of COVID-19 deaths for the first half of April. Here are the numbers: 


3/30/2020

3,179312849
3/31/2020

4,017323600
4/1/2020

5,074334548
4/2/2020

6,410345746
4/3/2020

8,097357259
4/4/2020

10,229369171
4/5/2020

12,9223711587
4/6/2020

16,3243814639
4/7/2020

20,6213918495
4/8/2020

26,0504023366
4/9/2020

32,9084129521
4/10/2020

41,5724237296
4/11/2020

52,5164347120
4/12/2020

66,3424459530
4/13/2020

83,8074575210
4/14/2020

105,8714695020
4/15/2020

133,74347120047


The first column is of course the date. The third column is the projected deaths from what I call the "aggressive model." The aggressive model has over the last week been more accurate than the "conservative model." The number of deaths for the conservative model are found in the fifth column. (The numbers in the fourth column are "index" values used in the computations.) 

Both models predict that around 4/4 or 4/5, the number of US deaths will be near 10K. And around 4/14 and 4/15 the number of deaths will be around 100K. I'm hoping that things will crest soon and we will not see these numbers anytime soon. But for now I don't see the curves beginning to asymptote. If they do not begin to asymptote, we could see a million deaths in the US from COVID-19 by the end of April or the first part of June.

UPDATE: 

I stopped showing my projections above on 4/15 because the numbers were frightening enough. However, the Federal Government has made an announcement that if everything from now goes perfectly, we should expect the number of deaths to be up to 200,000. I believe they're making the statement that they did because they believe that the predicted number of deaths from COVID-19 are pretty much "baked in." Given that, I decided to show more of what my models predict, this time to 4/30. I begin with today's number of deaths (2nd column) and go from there. To review, the aggressive model is the 3rd column and the conservative model is the 5th column. Both models predict over 2 million deaths by 4/30. I believe the limiting factor on this many deaths in this short a time is the number people an infected person can infect. At some point the pool people who can be infected because so many are infected becomes increasingly limited. Where that comes into play is something I haven't had a chance to work through. I suspect that it something on the order of when 30 to 50 percent of the population becomes infected. 


3/30/20203,1483,179312,849
3/31/2020

4,017323,600
4/1/2020

5,074334,548
4/2/2020

6,410345,746
4/3/2020

8,097357,259
4/4/2020

10,229369,171
4/5/2020

12,9223711,587
4/6/2020

16,3243814,639
4/7/2020

20,6213918,495
4/8/2020

26,0504023,366
4/9/2020

32,9084129,521
4/10/2020

41,5724237,296
4/11/2020

52,5164347,120
4/12/2020

66,3424459,530
4/13/2020

83,8074575,210
4/14/2020

105,8714695,020
4/15/2020

133,74347120,047
4/16/2020

168,95248151,667
4/17/2020

213,43249191,615
4/18/2020

269,62150242,085
4/19/2020

340,60351305,848
4/20/2020

430,27152386,405
4/21/2020

543,54753488,181
4/22/2020

686,64454616,764
4/23/2020

867,41455779,214
4/24/2020

1,095,77356984,453
4/25/2020

1,384,253571,243,749
4/26/2020

1,748,678581,571,343
4/27/2020

2,209,044591,985,221
4/28/2020

2,790,609602,508,112

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Update 23 March 2020: Projecting the number of deaths over the next several days

Update: 23 March 2020, the model predicted 520 deaths for today. The number of deaths as of this evening: 520. Two days, two accurate predictions. No change to the trend line equation I am sorry to report.

----------------

I nearly passed out when I saw this.  

The equation that defines the data for 2/29/2020 to 3/22/2020 is:

y=2.1183 times e to the power of .2293*X. X is an index number beginning with 1. 

Initially, I calculated the trend line using the number of deaths up to 3/21. A few minutes later I found out the current number of deaths (3/22). I recalculated the trend line based on the additional data. The trend line remained the same. I have maintained the calculated value for 3/22 just to show that the trend line appears to be a reasonable projection of the future ... if we continue to do what we've been doing. 

Fortunately, some states have taken action. 

But, please note that the projection is for something on the order of a total of a million deaths just a little over a month. And one percent of the US population dead by the end of April. 

According to the CDC, 675,000 died in the US because of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic when the population was approximately 103 million. So kind of numbers that this trend line is not all that out of the realm of possibility.

Given the number of deaths and their rapid acceleration, I have to wonder about the actual infection rate in the US. These numbers suggest that many, many more people are infected with COVID-19 than anyone has yet considered. Instead of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, it could be in the millions. 

I'll continue to enter numbers into the spreadsheet day by day so see if the trend line changes ... for the better?

DateCumulative Deaths ActualCumulative Deaths Projected
2/29/202011
3/1/202011
3/2/202066
3/3/202099
3/4/20201111
3/5/20201212
3/6/20201515
3/7/20201919
3/8/20202222
3/9/20202626
3/10/20203030
3/11/20203838
3/12/20204141
3/13/20204949
3/14/20205757
3/15/20206868
3/16/20208686
3/17/2020109109
3/18/2020150150
3/19/2020207207
3/20/2020256256
3/21/2020302302
3/22/2020414413
3/23/2020
520
520
3/24/2020

654
3/25/2020

823
3/26/2020

1,035
3/27/2020

1,301
3/28/2020

1,637
3/29/2020

2,059
3/30/2020

2,589
3/31/2020

3,256
4/1/2020

4,096
4/2/2020

5,151
4/3/2020

6,479
4/4/2020

8,148
4/5/2020

10,248
4/6/2020

12,889
4/7/2020

16,211
4/8/2020

20,389
4/9/2020

25,644
4/10/2020

32,252
4/11/2020

40,565
4/12/2020

51,019
4/13/2020

64,167
4/14/2020

80,704
4/15/2020

101,503
4/16/2020

127,663
4/17/2020

160,564
4/18/2020

201,944
4/19/2020

253,989
4/20/2020

319,447
4/21/2020

401,775
4/22/2020

505,320
4/23/2020

635,551
4/24/2020

799,344
4/25/2020

1,005,350
4/26/2020

1,264,448
4/27/2020

1,590,321
4/28/2020

2,000,177
4/29/2020

2,515,661
4/30/2020

3,163,995

And if these numbers don't get your attention, here are the numbers for the first three days in May.

5/1/2020

3,979,417
5/2/2020

5,004,988
5/3/2020

6,294,869
I find it difficult to believe that the US is going to reach these numbers, but this is about 2 percent of the population.