Update 23 March 2020: Projecting the number of deaths over the next several days

Update: 23 March 2020, the model predicted 520 deaths for today. The number of deaths as of this evening: 520. Two days, two accurate predictions. No change to the trend line equation I am sorry to report.

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I nearly passed out when I saw this.  

The equation that defines the data for 2/29/2020 to 3/22/2020 is:

y=2.1183 times e to the power of .2293*X. X is an index number beginning with 1. 

Initially, I calculated the trend line using the number of deaths up to 3/21. A few minutes later I found out the current number of deaths (3/22). I recalculated the trend line based on the additional data. The trend line remained the same. I have maintained the calculated value for 3/22 just to show that the trend line appears to be a reasonable projection of the future ... if we continue to do what we've been doing. 

Fortunately, some states have taken action. 

But, please note that the projection is for something on the order of a total of a million deaths just a little over a month. And one percent of the US population dead by the end of April. 

According to the CDC, 675,000 died in the US because of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic when the population was approximately 103 million. So kind of numbers that this trend line is not all that out of the realm of possibility.

Given the number of deaths and their rapid acceleration, I have to wonder about the actual infection rate in the US. These numbers suggest that many, many more people are infected with COVID-19 than anyone has yet considered. Instead of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, it could be in the millions. 

I'll continue to enter numbers into the spreadsheet day by day so see if the trend line changes ... for the better?

Date	Cumulative Deaths Actual	Cumulative Deaths Projected
2/29/2020	1	1
3/1/2020	1	1
3/2/2020	6	6
3/3/2020	9	9
3/4/2020	11	11
3/5/2020	12	12
3/6/2020	15	15
3/7/2020	19	19
3/8/2020	22	22
3/9/2020	26	26
3/10/2020	30	30
3/11/2020	38	38
3/12/2020	41	41
3/13/2020	49	49
3/14/2020	57	57
3/15/2020	68	68
3/16/2020	86	86
3/17/2020	109	109
3/18/2020	150	150
3/19/2020	207	207
3/20/2020	256	256
3/21/2020	302	302
3/22/2020	414	413
3/23/2020	520	520
3/24/2020		654
3/25/2020		823
3/26/2020		1,035
3/27/2020		1,301
3/28/2020		1,637
3/29/2020		2,059
3/30/2020		2,589
3/31/2020		3,256
4/1/2020		4,096
4/2/2020		5,151
4/3/2020		6,479
4/4/2020		8,148
4/5/2020		10,248
4/6/2020		12,889
4/7/2020		16,211
4/8/2020		20,389
4/9/2020		25,644
4/10/2020		32,252
4/11/2020		40,565
4/12/2020		51,019
4/13/2020		64,167
4/14/2020		80,704
4/15/2020		101,503
4/16/2020		127,663
4/17/2020		160,564
4/18/2020		201,944
4/19/2020		253,989
4/20/2020		319,447
4/21/2020		401,775
4/22/2020		505,320
4/23/2020		635,551
4/24/2020		799,344
4/25/2020		1,005,350
4/26/2020		1,264,448
4/27/2020		1,590,321
4/28/2020		2,000,177
4/29/2020		2,515,661
4/30/2020		3,163,995

And if these numbers don't get your attention, here are the numbers for the first three days in May.

5/1/2020		3,979,417
5/2/2020		5,004,988
5/3/2020		6,294,869

I find it difficult to believe that the US is going to reach these numbers, but this is about 2 percent of the population. 

Update -- COVID-19 Model: Estimated Number of Infected Individuals Based on the Number of Deaths

I've had a chance to examine my model in light of evidence from South Korea that I collected from the Johns Hopkins CoronaVirus Resource Center (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.) South Korea has clearly had one of the best if not the best COVID-19 mitigation strategy that has a centerpiece aggressive testing. Therefore, South Korea's numbers should be the most up to date and accurate.

As of 16 March 2020, South Korea's numbers are:

• 8,162 infected
• 75 deaths

Johns Hopkins doesn't breakdown the deaths by age group, however, I entered what I believe are realistic numbers into the fields. Here are the results:

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	21	142	803	119
70-79	0.08	17	213	1202	96
60-69	0.036	13	361	2043	74
50-59	0.013	8	615	3481	45
40-49	0.004	7	1750	9899	40
30-39	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
20-29	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
10-19	0.002	1	500	2828	6
0-9	0.0	0	948	5360	0
Infection rate	2.0
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8528
Total Infected Now	48244
Total number of deaths	75
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	424

The numbers to focus on are "Total Infected based on current number of deaths" and the "Total number of deaths." I'm assuming that the total number of infected in South Korea is close to being complete. I'm estimating that South Korea has 8528 infected individuals. However, because of the lack of testing in the US, I would estimate that when the US reaches 75 deaths, that in reality there are 48244 infected. And that the US will see 424 deaths within 2.5 weeks.

I noted one flaw in my estimator. Every cell of reported deaths from 80 plus to 10-19 must have a number other than zero to achieve a reasonable number of infected estimate for that age group. I'll see if I can build in correction mechanism that would enable one to enter zero for an age group and still have a reasonable estimate of the number who are infected. 

Update: Estimate of the Number of Infected in the US Based on Current Number of Deaths (16 March 2020)

As of today, the number of COVID-19 deaths is 74. Based on that information, here's what I estimate to be the number of infected.

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	21	142	803	119
70-79	0.08	17	213	1202	96
60-69	0.036	13	361	2043	74
50-59	0.013	8	615	3481	45
40-49	0.004	7	1750	9899	40
30-39	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
20-29	0.002	3	1500	8485	17
10-19	0.002	1	500	2828	6
0-9	0.0	0	885	5007	0
Infection rate	2.0
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	7966
Total Infected Now	45062
Total number of deaths	74
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	419

I decided to use fundamentally the same distribution pattern as I estimated for South Korea. These are the results:

• The estimate for the number infected throughout the US this day is 45,062. 
• 7966 people were infected 2.5 weeks ago.
• Approximately 2.5 weeks from today (end of March, first of April) I estimate 419 people will have died from COVID-19. I suspect that's a low estimate. If 17% of those infected require hospitalization at one point or another, I suspect that many will not receive treatment because of lack of resources and personnel. And many more will die due only to the lack of treatment because of the lack of preparation. 

A Second Update Regarding the US (16 March 2020)

I just heard that the number of deaths is 80. So based on that new number, these are my estimates:

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	24	162	917	136
70-79	0.08	18	225	1273	102
60-69	0.036	13	361	2043	74
50-59	0.013	10	769	4351	57
40-49	0.004	7	1750	9899	40
30-39	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
20-29	0.002	3	1500	8485	17
10-19	0.002	1	500	2828	6
0-9	0.0	0	908	5139	0
Infection rate	2.0
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8176
Total Infected Now	46250
Total number of deaths	80
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	453

• The estimate for the number infected throughout the US this day is 46,250.
• 8176 people were infected 2.5 weeks ago.
• Approximately 2.5 weeks from today (end of March, first of April) I estimate 453 people will have died from COVID-19.