Update: As of 20 March 2020 1600 GMT over 200 people (I entered 202 into the model) have been reported to have died in the US of COVID-19. Here are my projections for an 1) an infection rate of 2.0, 2) 2.5 and 3) 3.0. Infection rate is the number of people an infected person will infect. I have seen reports of 2.0 to 3.0 as the infection rate.
Infection rate of 2.0
- Total number infected as of today: 57,988
- Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1143
- Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 9858
Infection rate of 2.5
- Total number infected as of today: 101,301
- Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1996
- Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 17,221
Infection rate of 3.0
- Total number infected as of today: 159,797
- Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 3149
- Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 27,166
Social distancing is important as these numbers show. Do what you can not to become someone included in these numbers.
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