Showing posts with label Disease spread modeling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Disease spread modeling. Show all posts

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Update 23 March 2020: Projecting the number of deaths over the next several days

Update: 23 March 2020, the model predicted 520 deaths for today. The number of deaths as of this evening: 520. Two days, two accurate predictions. No change to the trend line equation I am sorry to report.

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I nearly passed out when I saw this.  

The equation that defines the data for 2/29/2020 to 3/22/2020 is:

y=2.1183 times e to the power of .2293*X. X is an index number beginning with 1. 

Initially, I calculated the trend line using the number of deaths up to 3/21. A few minutes later I found out the current number of deaths (3/22). I recalculated the trend line based on the additional data. The trend line remained the same. I have maintained the calculated value for 3/22 just to show that the trend line appears to be a reasonable projection of the future ... if we continue to do what we've been doing. 

Fortunately, some states have taken action. 

But, please note that the projection is for something on the order of a total of a million deaths just a little over a month. And one percent of the US population dead by the end of April. 

According to the CDC, 675,000 died in the US because of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic when the population was approximately 103 million. So kind of numbers that this trend line is not all that out of the realm of possibility.

Given the number of deaths and their rapid acceleration, I have to wonder about the actual infection rate in the US. These numbers suggest that many, many more people are infected with COVID-19 than anyone has yet considered. Instead of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, it could be in the millions. 

I'll continue to enter numbers into the spreadsheet day by day so see if the trend line changes ... for the better?

DateCumulative Deaths ActualCumulative Deaths Projected
2/29/202011
3/1/202011
3/2/202066
3/3/202099
3/4/20201111
3/5/20201212
3/6/20201515
3/7/20201919
3/8/20202222
3/9/20202626
3/10/20203030
3/11/20203838
3/12/20204141
3/13/20204949
3/14/20205757
3/15/20206868
3/16/20208686
3/17/2020109109
3/18/2020150150
3/19/2020207207
3/20/2020256256
3/21/2020302302
3/22/2020414413
3/23/2020
520
520
3/24/2020

654
3/25/2020

823
3/26/2020

1,035
3/27/2020

1,301
3/28/2020

1,637
3/29/2020

2,059
3/30/2020

2,589
3/31/2020

3,256
4/1/2020

4,096
4/2/2020

5,151
4/3/2020

6,479
4/4/2020

8,148
4/5/2020

10,248
4/6/2020

12,889
4/7/2020

16,211
4/8/2020

20,389
4/9/2020

25,644
4/10/2020

32,252
4/11/2020

40,565
4/12/2020

51,019
4/13/2020

64,167
4/14/2020

80,704
4/15/2020

101,503
4/16/2020

127,663
4/17/2020

160,564
4/18/2020

201,944
4/19/2020

253,989
4/20/2020

319,447
4/21/2020

401,775
4/22/2020

505,320
4/23/2020

635,551
4/24/2020

799,344
4/25/2020

1,005,350
4/26/2020

1,264,448
4/27/2020

1,590,321
4/28/2020

2,000,177
4/29/2020

2,515,661
4/30/2020

3,163,995

And if these numbers don't get your attention, here are the numbers for the first three days in May.

5/1/2020

3,979,417
5/2/2020

5,004,988
5/3/2020

6,294,869
I find it difficult to believe that the US is going to reach these numbers, but this is about 2 percent of the population. 

Thursday, March 19, 2020

Update: 20 March 2020 Projected US Numbers Infected by the Novel CoronaVirus

Update: As of 20 March 2020 1600 GMT over 200 people (I entered 202 into the model) have been reported to have died in the US of COVID-19. Here are my projections for an 1) an infection rate of 2.0, 2) 2.5 and 3) 3.0. Infection rate is the number of people an infected person will infect. I have seen reports of 2.0 to 3.0 as the infection rate.


Infection rate of 2.0



  • Total number infected as of today: 57,988
  • Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1143
  • Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 9858

Infection rate of 2.5



  • Total number infected as of today: 101,301
  • Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1996
  • Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 17,221


Infection rate of 3.0


  • Total number infected as of today: 159,797
  • Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 3149
  • Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 27,166
Social distancing is important as these numbers show. Do what you can not to become someone included in these numbers. 

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

COVID-19 Further Update: 18 March 2020 US Deaths at 132, Projected Number of Infected Report

As of today, I saw a report that 116 people have been reported to have died in the US of COVID-19. Here are my projections for an 1) an infection rate of 2.0, 2) 2.5 and 3) 3.0. Infection rate is the number of people an infected person will infect. I have seen reports of 2.0 to 3.0 as an infection rate.


Infection rate of 2.0



  • Total number infected as of today: 51120
  • Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 747
  • Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 8690

Infection rate of 2.5



  • Total number infected as of today: 89302
  • Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1304
  • Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 15,181

Infection rate of 3.0


  • Total number infected as of today: 140,869
  • Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 2058
  • Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 23,948


Now, does everyone understand why cities are being locked down?

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Update: 17 March 2020 COVID-19 Model Prediction of Number Based On Current Number of Deaths -- 88 to 104 deaths today and why social distancing is important.

Further updates below.
Here's what my model predicts as of GMT 1830, 17 March 2020: 

Age Ranges, YearsRate of DeathReported DeathsProjected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)Projected number of who are infected nowProjected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus0.148271821032153
70-790.08222751556124
60-690.03614389220079
50-590.01310769435157
40-490.00471750989940
30-390.002420001131423
20-290.00231500848517
10-190.002150028286
0-90.0092152080






Infection rate2.0




Average time of illness until death (weeks)2.5




Total Infected based on current number of deaths8286




Total Infected Now46874




Total number of deaths88




Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals498




Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value7969





Predicted Total of infected in the US as of the time of publication: 46,874. Projected number of deaths in 2.5 weeks is 498. The number that will need hospitalization is 7969. 


A Further Update -- Just Passed 100 Deaths Today

Projected number of currently infected: 48,348. Projected number of deaths in approximately 2.5 weeks: 566. The number that will need hospitalization of those currently infected: 8219.


Another Update 104 deaths and a change in the infection rate:



As well as changing the number of deaths, I changed the infection rate to 2.5. Here are the results:


Age Ranges, YearsRate of DeathReported DeathsProjected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)Projected number of who are infected nowProjected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus0.148362432404356
70-790.08253133088247
60-690.036174724667168
50-590.013118468362109
40-490.004717501729469
30-390.002420001976440
20-290.002315001482330
10-190.0021500494110
0-90.0095394180






Infection rate2.5




Average time of illness until death (weeks)2.5




Total Infected based on current number of deaths8577




Total Infected Now84760




Total number of deaths104




Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals1028




Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value14409





A change in the infection rate from 2.0 to 2.5 nearly doubles the number of infected to 84,760. The projected number of deaths in 2 to 2.5 weeks is 1028. The projected number of people who will require hospitalization is 14,409. 

Change the infection rate to 2.0 and the results are the following:

  • Number of infected: 48,520
  • Number of deaths: 588
  • Number requiring hospitalization: 8248
This is why the San Francisco area is on lock-down. This is why bars and restaurants are being shutdown. That's why there are no NBA games, etc. Social distancing can have a major effect on how this will play out.

However, it doesn't fix the failures of the Trump Administration, Trump's outlandish incompetence. Trump has been a catastrophic failure as a businessman and he has transferred that complete lack of competence to the Presidency. Let's all hope for the sake of the World, that Trump does not get another 4 years as President. What I would like to see would be for Trump to get 20 years (at least) in prison along with many other of his associates of what can only be considered to be a nightmare of an administration.