Update 23 March 2020: Projecting the number of deaths over the next several days

Update: 23 March 2020, the model predicted 520 deaths for today. The number of deaths as of this evening: 520. Two days, two accurate predictions. No change to the trend line equation I am sorry to report.

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I nearly passed out when I saw this.  

The equation that defines the data for 2/29/2020 to 3/22/2020 is:

y=2.1183 times e to the power of .2293*X. X is an index number beginning with 1. 

Initially, I calculated the trend line using the number of deaths up to 3/21. A few minutes later I found out the current number of deaths (3/22). I recalculated the trend line based on the additional data. The trend line remained the same. I have maintained the calculated value for 3/22 just to show that the trend line appears to be a reasonable projection of the future ... if we continue to do what we've been doing. 

Fortunately, some states have taken action. 

But, please note that the projection is for something on the order of a total of a million deaths just a little over a month. And one percent of the US population dead by the end of April. 

According to the CDC, 675,000 died in the US because of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic when the population was approximately 103 million. So kind of numbers that this trend line is not all that out of the realm of possibility.

Given the number of deaths and their rapid acceleration, I have to wonder about the actual infection rate in the US. These numbers suggest that many, many more people are infected with COVID-19 than anyone has yet considered. Instead of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, it could be in the millions. 

I'll continue to enter numbers into the spreadsheet day by day so see if the trend line changes ... for the better?

Date	Cumulative Deaths Actual	Cumulative Deaths Projected
2/29/2020	1	1
3/1/2020	1	1
3/2/2020	6	6
3/3/2020	9	9
3/4/2020	11	11
3/5/2020	12	12
3/6/2020	15	15
3/7/2020	19	19
3/8/2020	22	22
3/9/2020	26	26
3/10/2020	30	30
3/11/2020	38	38
3/12/2020	41	41
3/13/2020	49	49
3/14/2020	57	57
3/15/2020	68	68
3/16/2020	86	86
3/17/2020	109	109
3/18/2020	150	150
3/19/2020	207	207
3/20/2020	256	256
3/21/2020	302	302
3/22/2020	414	413
3/23/2020	520	520
3/24/2020		654
3/25/2020		823
3/26/2020		1,035
3/27/2020		1,301
3/28/2020		1,637
3/29/2020		2,059
3/30/2020		2,589
3/31/2020		3,256
4/1/2020		4,096
4/2/2020		5,151
4/3/2020		6,479
4/4/2020		8,148
4/5/2020		10,248
4/6/2020		12,889
4/7/2020		16,211
4/8/2020		20,389
4/9/2020		25,644
4/10/2020		32,252
4/11/2020		40,565
4/12/2020		51,019
4/13/2020		64,167
4/14/2020		80,704
4/15/2020		101,503
4/16/2020		127,663
4/17/2020		160,564
4/18/2020		201,944
4/19/2020		253,989
4/20/2020		319,447
4/21/2020		401,775
4/22/2020		505,320
4/23/2020		635,551
4/24/2020		799,344
4/25/2020		1,005,350
4/26/2020		1,264,448
4/27/2020		1,590,321
4/28/2020		2,000,177
4/29/2020		2,515,661
4/30/2020		3,163,995

And if these numbers don't get your attention, here are the numbers for the first three days in May.

5/1/2020		3,979,417
5/2/2020		5,004,988
5/3/2020		6,294,869

I find it difficult to believe that the US is going to reach these numbers, but this is about 2 percent of the population. 

Update: 20 March 2020 Projected US Numbers Infected by the Novel CoronaVirus

Update: As of 20 March 2020 1600 GMT over 200 people (I entered 202 into the model) have been reported to have died in the US of COVID-19. Here are my projections for an 1) an infection rate of 2.0, 2) 2.5 and 3) 3.0. Infection rate is the number of people an infected person will infect. I have seen reports of 2.0 to 3.0 as the infection rate.

Infection rate of 2.0

• Total number infected as of today: 57,988
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1143
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 9858

Infection rate of 2.5

• Total number infected as of today: 101,301
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1996
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 17,221

Infection rate of 3.0

• Total number infected as of today: 159,797
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 3149
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 27,166

Social distancing is important as these numbers show. Do what you can not to become someone included in these numbers. 

COVID-19 Further Update: 18 March 2020 US Deaths at 132, Projected Number of Infected Report

As of today, I saw a report that 116 people have been reported to have died in the US of COVID-19. Here are my projections for an 1) an infection rate of 2.0, 2) 2.5 and 3) 3.0. Infection rate is the number of people an infected person will infect. I have seen reports of 2.0 to 3.0 as an infection rate.

Infection rate of 2.0

• Total number infected as of today: 51120
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 747
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 8690

Infection rate of 2.5

• Total number infected as of today: 89302
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1304
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 15,181

Infection rate of 3.0

• Total number infected as of today: 140,869
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 2058
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 23,948

Now, does everyone understand why cities are being locked down?

Update: 17 March 2020 COVID-19 Model Prediction of Number Based On Current Number of Deaths -- 88 to 104 deaths today and why social distancing is important.

Further updates below.
Here's what my model predicts as of GMT 1830, 17 March 2020: 

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	27	182	1032	153
70-79	0.08	22	275	1556	124
60-69	0.036	14	389	2200	79
50-59	0.013	10	769	4351	57
40-49	0.004	7	1750	9899	40
30-39	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
20-29	0.002	3	1500	8485	17
10-19	0.002	1	500	2828	6
0-9	0.0	0	921	5208	0
Infection rate	2.0
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8286
Total Infected Now	46874
Total number of deaths	88
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	498
Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value	7969

Predicted Total of infected in the US as of the time of publication: 46,874. Projected number of deaths in 2.5 weeks is 498. The number that will need hospitalization is 7969. 

A Further Update -- Just Passed 100 Deaths Today

Projected number of currently infected: 48,348. Projected number of deaths in approximately 2.5 weeks: 566. The number that will need hospitalization of those currently infected: 8219.

Another Update 104 deaths and a change in the infection rate:

As well as changing the number of deaths, I changed the infection rate to 2.5. Here are the results:

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	36	243	2404	356
70-79	0.08	25	313	3088	247
60-69	0.036	17	472	4667	168
50-59	0.013	11	846	8362	109
40-49	0.004	7	1750	17294	69
30-39	0.002	4	2000	19764	40
20-29	0.002	3	1500	14823	30
10-19	0.002	1	500	4941	10
0-9	0.0	0	953	9418	0
Infection rate	2.5
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8577
Total Infected Now	84760
Total number of deaths	104
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	1028
Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value	14409

A change in the infection rate from 2.0 to 2.5 nearly doubles the number of infected to 84,760. The projected number of deaths in 2 to 2.5 weeks is 1028. The projected number of people who will require hospitalization is 14,409. 

Change the infection rate to 2.0 and the results are the following:

• Number of infected: 48,520
• Number of deaths: 588
• Number requiring hospitalization: 8248

This is why the San Francisco area is on lock-down. This is why bars and restaurants are being shutdown. That's why there are no NBA games, etc. Social distancing can have a major effect on how this will play out.

However, it doesn't fix the failures of the Trump Administration, Trump's outlandish incompetence. Trump has been a catastrophic failure as a businessman and he has transferred that complete lack of competence to the Presidency. Let's all hope for the sake of the World, that Trump does not get another 4 years as President. What I would like to see would be for Trump to get 20 years (at least) in prison along with many other of his associates of what can only be considered to be a nightmare of an administration.