Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Update: 17 March 2020 COVID-19 Model Prediction of Number Based On Current Number of Deaths -- 88 to 104 deaths today and why social distancing is important.

Further updates below.
Here's what my model predicts as of GMT 1830, 17 March 2020: 

Age Ranges, YearsRate of DeathReported DeathsProjected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)Projected number of who are infected nowProjected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus0.148271821032153
70-790.08222751556124
60-690.03614389220079
50-590.01310769435157
40-490.00471750989940
30-390.002420001131423
20-290.00231500848517
10-190.002150028286
0-90.0092152080






Infection rate2.0




Average time of illness until death (weeks)2.5




Total Infected based on current number of deaths8286




Total Infected Now46874




Total number of deaths88




Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals498




Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value7969





Predicted Total of infected in the US as of the time of publication: 46,874. Projected number of deaths in 2.5 weeks is 498. The number that will need hospitalization is 7969. 


A Further Update -- Just Passed 100 Deaths Today

Projected number of currently infected: 48,348. Projected number of deaths in approximately 2.5 weeks: 566. The number that will need hospitalization of those currently infected: 8219.


Another Update 104 deaths and a change in the infection rate:



As well as changing the number of deaths, I changed the infection rate to 2.5. Here are the results:


Age Ranges, YearsRate of DeathReported DeathsProjected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)Projected number of who are infected nowProjected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus0.148362432404356
70-790.08253133088247
60-690.036174724667168
50-590.013118468362109
40-490.004717501729469
30-390.002420001976440
20-290.002315001482330
10-190.0021500494110
0-90.0095394180






Infection rate2.5




Average time of illness until death (weeks)2.5




Total Infected based on current number of deaths8577




Total Infected Now84760




Total number of deaths104




Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals1028




Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value14409





A change in the infection rate from 2.0 to 2.5 nearly doubles the number of infected to 84,760. The projected number of deaths in 2 to 2.5 weeks is 1028. The projected number of people who will require hospitalization is 14,409. 

Change the infection rate to 2.0 and the results are the following:

  • Number of infected: 48,520
  • Number of deaths: 588
  • Number requiring hospitalization: 8248
This is why the San Francisco area is on lock-down. This is why bars and restaurants are being shutdown. That's why there are no NBA games, etc. Social distancing can have a major effect on how this will play out.

However, it doesn't fix the failures of the Trump Administration, Trump's outlandish incompetence. Trump has been a catastrophic failure as a businessman and he has transferred that complete lack of competence to the Presidency. Let's all hope for the sake of the World, that Trump does not get another 4 years as President. What I would like to see would be for Trump to get 20 years (at least) in prison along with many other of his associates of what can only be considered to be a nightmare of an administration. 

No comments:

Post a Comment