30 March 2020 Projected Number of US Deaths from Now into April 2020

I have two models that I'm currently using to project the number of COVID-19 deaths for the first half of April. Here are the numbers: 

3/30/2020		3,179	31	2849
3/31/2020		4,017	32	3600
4/1/2020		5,074	33	4548
4/2/2020		6,410	34	5746
4/3/2020		8,097	35	7259
4/4/2020		10,229	36	9171
4/5/2020		12,922	37	11587
4/6/2020		16,324	38	14639
4/7/2020		20,621	39	18495
4/8/2020		26,050	40	23366
4/9/2020		32,908	41	29521
4/10/2020		41,572	42	37296
4/11/2020		52,516	43	47120
4/12/2020		66,342	44	59530
4/13/2020		83,807	45	75210
4/14/2020		105,871	46	95020
4/15/2020		133,743	47	120047

The first column is of course the date. The third column is the projected deaths from what I call the "aggressive model." The aggressive model has over the last week been more accurate than the "conservative model." The number of deaths for the conservative model are found in the fifth column. (The numbers in the fourth column are "index" values used in the computations.) 

Both models predict that around 4/4 or 4/5, the number of US deaths will be near 10K. And around 4/14 and 4/15 the number of deaths will be around 100K. I'm hoping that things will crest soon and we will not see these numbers anytime soon. But for now I don't see the curves beginning to asymptote. If they do not begin to asymptote, we could see a million deaths in the US from COVID-19 by the end of April or the first part of June.

UPDATE: 

I stopped showing my projections above on 4/15 because the numbers were frightening enough. However, the Federal Government has made an announcement that if everything from now goes perfectly, we should expect the number of deaths to be up to 200,000. I believe they're making the statement that they did because they believe that the predicted number of deaths from COVID-19 are pretty much "baked in." Given that, I decided to show more of what my models predict, this time to 4/30. I begin with today's number of deaths (2nd column) and go from there. To review, the aggressive model is the 3rd column and the conservative model is the 5th column. Both models predict over 2 million deaths by 4/30. I believe the limiting factor on this many deaths in this short a time is the number people an infected person can infect. At some point the pool people who can be infected because so many are infected becomes increasingly limited. Where that comes into play is something I haven't had a chance to work through. I suspect that it something on the order of when 30 to 50 percent of the population becomes infected. 

3/30/2020	3,148	3,179	31	2,849
3/31/2020		4,017	32	3,600
4/1/2020		5,074	33	4,548
4/2/2020		6,410	34	5,746
4/3/2020		8,097	35	7,259
4/4/2020		10,229	36	9,171
4/5/2020		12,922	37	11,587
4/6/2020		16,324	38	14,639
4/7/2020		20,621	39	18,495
4/8/2020		26,050	40	23,366
4/9/2020		32,908	41	29,521
4/10/2020		41,572	42	37,296
4/11/2020		52,516	43	47,120
4/12/2020		66,342	44	59,530
4/13/2020		83,807	45	75,210
4/14/2020		105,871	46	95,020
4/15/2020		133,743	47	120,047
4/16/2020		168,952	48	151,667
4/17/2020		213,432	49	191,615
4/18/2020		269,621	50	242,085
4/19/2020		340,603	51	305,848
4/20/2020		430,271	52	386,405
4/21/2020		543,547	53	488,181
4/22/2020		686,644	54	616,764
4/23/2020		867,414	55	779,214
4/24/2020		1,095,773	56	984,453
4/25/2020		1,384,253	57	1,243,749
4/26/2020		1,748,678	58	1,571,343
4/27/2020		2,209,044	59	1,985,221
4/28/2020		2,790,609	60	2,508,112

Update: 20 March 2020 Projected US Numbers Infected by the Novel CoronaVirus

Update: As of 20 March 2020 1600 GMT over 200 people (I entered 202 into the model) have been reported to have died in the US of COVID-19. Here are my projections for an 1) an infection rate of 2.0, 2) 2.5 and 3) 3.0. Infection rate is the number of people an infected person will infect. I have seen reports of 2.0 to 3.0 as the infection rate.

Infection rate of 2.0

• Total number infected as of today: 57,988
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1143
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 9858

Infection rate of 2.5

• Total number infected as of today: 101,301
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1996
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 17,221

Infection rate of 3.0

• Total number infected as of today: 159,797
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 3149
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 27,166

Social distancing is important as these numbers show. Do what you can not to become someone included in these numbers. 

COVID-19 Further Update: 18 March 2020 US Deaths at 132, Projected Number of Infected Report

As of today, I saw a report that 116 people have been reported to have died in the US of COVID-19. Here are my projections for an 1) an infection rate of 2.0, 2) 2.5 and 3) 3.0. Infection rate is the number of people an infected person will infect. I have seen reports of 2.0 to 3.0 as an infection rate.

Infection rate of 2.0

• Total number infected as of today: 51120
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 747
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 8690

Infection rate of 2.5

• Total number infected as of today: 89302
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1304
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 15,181

Infection rate of 3.0

• Total number infected as of today: 140,869
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 2058
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 23,948

Now, does everyone understand why cities are being locked down?

Update: 17 March 2020 COVID-19 Model Prediction of Number Based On Current Number of Deaths -- 88 to 104 deaths today and why social distancing is important.

Further updates below.
Here's what my model predicts as of GMT 1830, 17 March 2020: 

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	27	182	1032	153
70-79	0.08	22	275	1556	124
60-69	0.036	14	389	2200	79
50-59	0.013	10	769	4351	57
40-49	0.004	7	1750	9899	40
30-39	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
20-29	0.002	3	1500	8485	17
10-19	0.002	1	500	2828	6
0-9	0.0	0	921	5208	0
Infection rate	2.0
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8286
Total Infected Now	46874
Total number of deaths	88
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	498
Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value	7969

Predicted Total of infected in the US as of the time of publication: 46,874. Projected number of deaths in 2.5 weeks is 498. The number that will need hospitalization is 7969. 

A Further Update -- Just Passed 100 Deaths Today

Projected number of currently infected: 48,348. Projected number of deaths in approximately 2.5 weeks: 566. The number that will need hospitalization of those currently infected: 8219.

Another Update 104 deaths and a change in the infection rate:

As well as changing the number of deaths, I changed the infection rate to 2.5. Here are the results:

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	36	243	2404	356
70-79	0.08	25	313	3088	247
60-69	0.036	17	472	4667	168
50-59	0.013	11	846	8362	109
40-49	0.004	7	1750	17294	69
30-39	0.002	4	2000	19764	40
20-29	0.002	3	1500	14823	30
10-19	0.002	1	500	4941	10
0-9	0.0	0	953	9418	0
Infection rate	2.5
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8577
Total Infected Now	84760
Total number of deaths	104
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	1028
Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value	14409

A change in the infection rate from 2.0 to 2.5 nearly doubles the number of infected to 84,760. The projected number of deaths in 2 to 2.5 weeks is 1028. The projected number of people who will require hospitalization is 14,409. 

Change the infection rate to 2.0 and the results are the following:

• Number of infected: 48,520
• Number of deaths: 588
• Number requiring hospitalization: 8248

This is why the San Francisco area is on lock-down. This is why bars and restaurants are being shutdown. That's why there are no NBA games, etc. Social distancing can have a major effect on how this will play out.

However, it doesn't fix the failures of the Trump Administration, Trump's outlandish incompetence. Trump has been a catastrophic failure as a businessman and he has transferred that complete lack of competence to the Presidency. Let's all hope for the sake of the World, that Trump does not get another 4 years as President. What I would like to see would be for Trump to get 20 years (at least) in prison along with many other of his associates of what can only be considered to be a nightmare of an administration.