30 March 2020 Projected Number of US Deaths from Now into April 2020

I have two models that I'm currently using to project the number of COVID-19 deaths for the first half of April. Here are the numbers: 

3/30/2020		3,179	31	2849
3/31/2020		4,017	32	3600
4/1/2020		5,074	33	4548
4/2/2020		6,410	34	5746
4/3/2020		8,097	35	7259
4/4/2020		10,229	36	9171
4/5/2020		12,922	37	11587
4/6/2020		16,324	38	14639
4/7/2020		20,621	39	18495
4/8/2020		26,050	40	23366
4/9/2020		32,908	41	29521
4/10/2020		41,572	42	37296
4/11/2020		52,516	43	47120
4/12/2020		66,342	44	59530
4/13/2020		83,807	45	75210
4/14/2020		105,871	46	95020
4/15/2020		133,743	47	120047

The first column is of course the date. The third column is the projected deaths from what I call the "aggressive model." The aggressive model has over the last week been more accurate than the "conservative model." The number of deaths for the conservative model are found in the fifth column. (The numbers in the fourth column are "index" values used in the computations.) 

Both models predict that around 4/4 or 4/5, the number of US deaths will be near 10K. And around 4/14 and 4/15 the number of deaths will be around 100K. I'm hoping that things will crest soon and we will not see these numbers anytime soon. But for now I don't see the curves beginning to asymptote. If they do not begin to asymptote, we could see a million deaths in the US from COVID-19 by the end of April or the first part of June.

UPDATE: 

I stopped showing my projections above on 4/15 because the numbers were frightening enough. However, the Federal Government has made an announcement that if everything from now goes perfectly, we should expect the number of deaths to be up to 200,000. I believe they're making the statement that they did because they believe that the predicted number of deaths from COVID-19 are pretty much "baked in." Given that, I decided to show more of what my models predict, this time to 4/30. I begin with today's number of deaths (2nd column) and go from there. To review, the aggressive model is the 3rd column and the conservative model is the 5th column. Both models predict over 2 million deaths by 4/30. I believe the limiting factor on this many deaths in this short a time is the number people an infected person can infect. At some point the pool people who can be infected because so many are infected becomes increasingly limited. Where that comes into play is something I haven't had a chance to work through. I suspect that it something on the order of when 30 to 50 percent of the population becomes infected. 

3/30/2020	3,148	3,179	31	2,849
3/31/2020		4,017	32	3,600
4/1/2020		5,074	33	4,548
4/2/2020		6,410	34	5,746
4/3/2020		8,097	35	7,259
4/4/2020		10,229	36	9,171
4/5/2020		12,922	37	11,587
4/6/2020		16,324	38	14,639
4/7/2020		20,621	39	18,495
4/8/2020		26,050	40	23,366
4/9/2020		32,908	41	29,521
4/10/2020		41,572	42	37,296
4/11/2020		52,516	43	47,120
4/12/2020		66,342	44	59,530
4/13/2020		83,807	45	75,210
4/14/2020		105,871	46	95,020
4/15/2020		133,743	47	120,047
4/16/2020		168,952	48	151,667
4/17/2020		213,432	49	191,615
4/18/2020		269,621	50	242,085
4/19/2020		340,603	51	305,848
4/20/2020		430,271	52	386,405
4/21/2020		543,547	53	488,181
4/22/2020		686,644	54	616,764
4/23/2020		867,414	55	779,214
4/24/2020		1,095,773	56	984,453
4/25/2020		1,384,253	57	1,243,749
4/26/2020		1,748,678	58	1,571,343
4/27/2020		2,209,044	59	1,985,221
4/28/2020		2,790,609	60	2,508,112

21 March 2020 New York State: How many are likely to be inflected with the novel CoronaVirus?

Here's the current situation as reported today by the New York Times:

• Deaths: 43
• Confirmed CoronaVirus cases: 6,211

With an infection rate of 2.5, here's what I suggest is the actual situation:

• Total number infected: 24,952 ... so the number of confirmed cases is about 25% of those actually infected.
• Projected number of deaths in 15 to 17 days: 425
• The number who will require hospitalization: 4,242

Washington Post: Live updates: Coronavirus was probably spreading for six weeks in Washington state, study says; first deaths confirmed in U.S., Australia and Thailand

This just came to my attention. Here's the link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/01/coronavirus-live-updates/

I expect that this article will be periodically updated.

COVID-19 Spread: Updates from the Washington Post - Updated

When a novel virus spreads, it's important to have access to trusted sources of information. Here's an article from the Washington Post regarding the spread of the COVID-19 virus around the world. This article will be updated from time to time.

Here's the link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/22/mapping-spread-new-coronavirus/?arc404=true

One more thing ... if you take a look at the end of the article, there's a table of history of various diseases. One of the things that I did, was from the data provided to determine the death rate of COVID-19. Using the reported numbers, the death rate is 3.46%. (86013 inflected and 2977 deaths.) That could be high because not all COVID-19 cases are likely to have been detected. 

I updated the parameters in my quick model to 1) number of persons that an infected person would infect = 2 and 2) death rate = .0346. Number for multiple generational points = 75. 

This is what the model produced:

Generation	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Number infected in Generation	1	2	4	8	16	32	64	128	256	512	1,024	2,048
Running total infected	1	3	7	15	31	63	127	255	511	1,023	2,047	4,095
Total deaths	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	9	18	35	71	142
Multiple Origination Points Infected	75	150	300	600	1,200	2,400	4,800	9,600	19,200	38,400	76,800	153,600
Running total infected	75	225	525	1,125	2,325	4,725	9,525	19,125	38,325	76,725	153,525	307,125
Total deaths	3	8	18	39	80	163	330	662	1,326	2,655	5,312	10,627

UPDATE: Of note, I reported the COVID-19 death rate as 3.46% based on the numbers supplied by the Washington Post in the article shown above. I reported that value as a death rate with caveats. However, about a week after I stated the above COVID-19 death rate, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a death rate of 3.4%. I was about to alter my death rate to 1% based on recent reporting. But for now I'm not going to update what my model has predicted with respect to the number of deaths until I receive an updated number from WHO or the CDC.

Changing the number for multiple generational points to 42, here's what you get:

Generation	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Number infected in Generation	1	2	4	8	16	32	64	128	256	512	1,024	2,048
Running total infected	1	3	7	15	31	63	127	255	511	1,023	2,047	4,095
Total deaths	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	9	18	35	71	142
Multiple Origination Points Infected	42	84	168	336	672	1,344	2,688	5,376	10,752	21,504	43,008	86,016
Running total infected	42	126	294	630	1,302	2,646	5,334	10,710	21,462	42,966	85,974	171,990
Total deaths	1	4	10	22	45	92	185	371	743	1,487	2,975	5,951

So based on the assumptions embedded in the model (and these are speculative assumptions ... please note that fact) the current state of spread of and the number of deaths from the COVID-19 virus has 42 points of origination, spread over 10 generations where the person-to-person infection rate is 2.0 and the death rate is .0346. 

This also suggests that the spread to the next generation could result in a substantial jump in the number of cases (5 figures to 6 figures) as well as well as in the number deaths. But as with all things monitoring the data and updating the model with the new data is essential.

Update

From NBC News, I received a new person-to-person infection rate and the seemingly minor change makes a pretty significant change in the numbers. Here are the parameters: 1) person-to-person infection rate = 2.2, 2) death rate remains at .0346 and the number of origination points = 39 (to match up with current data). Here's the table:

Generation	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Number infected in Generation	1	2	5	11	23	52	113	249	549	1,207	2,656	5,843
Running total infected	1	3	8	19	42	94	207	456	1,005	2,212	4,868	10,712
Total deaths	0	0	0	1	1	3	7	16	35	77	168	371
Multiple Origination Points Infected	39	86	189	415	914	2,010	4,422	9,728	21,402	47,083	103,584	227,884
Running total infected	39	125	314	729	1,642	3,652	8,074	17,802	39,204	86,287	189,871	417,755
Total deaths	1	4	11	25	57	126	279	616	1,356	2,986	6,570	14,454

To reach the current number of reported infected people with 39 originating people is the 9th generation as opposed to the 10th generation. Also the jump in numbers to the next generation suggest that approximately 18,000 more people will be infected than in the previous table. 

The point I want to make is that even a slight uptick in the infection rate can have significant consequences.  This is why testing is so important. Keeping the infection rate down makes the epidemic more manageable. This is why informing the public regarding what they should be doing to not become or lower the chances of being infected is so important. This is why having competent people managing this public health emergency is so important. 

The Trump Administration

However, it seems that at the level of the Trump Administration, we have people who have no idea of what to do. Who have been denial for weeks about the likely spread of the virus outside of China and into the US. Trump's recent decision to restrict travel to and from Iran, Italy and South Korea in addition to China is not only short sighted, but utterly inane. The virus is in the US, it is spreading in the US. It's too late for travel restrictions to have any real effect. And besides, travel restrictions only buy you time to prepare, something the Trump Administration neglected to do in it's state of denial about how the virus could spread to the US.