21 March 2020 New York State: How many are likely to be inflected with the novel CoronaVirus?

Here's the current situation as reported today by the New York Times:

• Deaths: 43
• Confirmed CoronaVirus cases: 6,211

With an infection rate of 2.5, here's what I suggest is the actual situation:

• Total number infected: 24,952 ... so the number of confirmed cases is about 25% of those actually infected.
• Projected number of deaths in 15 to 17 days: 425
• The number who will require hospitalization: 4,242

Update: 20 March 2020 Projected US Numbers Infected by the Novel CoronaVirus

Update: As of 20 March 2020 1600 GMT over 200 people (I entered 202 into the model) have been reported to have died in the US of COVID-19. Here are my projections for an 1) an infection rate of 2.0, 2) 2.5 and 3) 3.0. Infection rate is the number of people an infected person will infect. I have seen reports of 2.0 to 3.0 as the infection rate.

Infection rate of 2.0

• Total number infected as of today: 57,988
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1143
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 9858

Infection rate of 2.5

• Total number infected as of today: 101,301
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1996
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 17,221

Infection rate of 3.0

• Total number infected as of today: 159,797
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 3149
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 27,166

Social distancing is important as these numbers show. Do what you can not to become someone included in these numbers. 

COVID-19 Further Update: 18 March 2020 US Deaths at 132, Projected Number of Infected Report

As of today, I saw a report that 116 people have been reported to have died in the US of COVID-19. Here are my projections for an 1) an infection rate of 2.0, 2) 2.5 and 3) 3.0. Infection rate is the number of people an infected person will infect. I have seen reports of 2.0 to 3.0 as an infection rate.

Infection rate of 2.0

• Total number infected as of today: 51120
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 747
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 8690

Infection rate of 2.5

• Total number infected as of today: 89302
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 1304
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 15,181

Infection rate of 3.0

• Total number infected as of today: 140,869
• Projected number of deaths in approximately 15 to 17 days: 2058
• Number of infected people who will require hospitalization: 23,948

Now, does everyone understand why cities are being locked down?

Update: 17 March 2020 COVID-19 Model Prediction of Number Based On Current Number of Deaths -- 88 to 104 deaths today and why social distancing is important.

Further updates below.
Here's what my model predicts as of GMT 1830, 17 March 2020: 

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	27	182	1032	153
70-79	0.08	22	275	1556	124
60-69	0.036	14	389	2200	79
50-59	0.013	10	769	4351	57
40-49	0.004	7	1750	9899	40
30-39	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
20-29	0.002	3	1500	8485	17
10-19	0.002	1	500	2828	6
0-9	0.0	0	921	5208	0
Infection rate	2.0
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8286
Total Infected Now	46874
Total number of deaths	88
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	498
Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value	7969

Predicted Total of infected in the US as of the time of publication: 46,874. Projected number of deaths in 2.5 weeks is 498. The number that will need hospitalization is 7969. 

A Further Update -- Just Passed 100 Deaths Today

Projected number of currently infected: 48,348. Projected number of deaths in approximately 2.5 weeks: 566. The number that will need hospitalization of those currently infected: 8219.

Another Update 104 deaths and a change in the infection rate:

As well as changing the number of deaths, I changed the infection rate to 2.5. Here are the results:

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	36	243	2404	356
70-79	0.08	25	313	3088	247
60-69	0.036	17	472	4667	168
50-59	0.013	11	846	8362	109
40-49	0.004	7	1750	17294	69
30-39	0.002	4	2000	19764	40
20-29	0.002	3	1500	14823	30
10-19	0.002	1	500	4941	10
0-9	0.0	0	953	9418	0
Infection rate	2.5
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	8577
Total Infected Now	84760
Total number of deaths	104
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	1028
Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value	14409

A change in the infection rate from 2.0 to 2.5 nearly doubles the number of infected to 84,760. The projected number of deaths in 2 to 2.5 weeks is 1028. The projected number of people who will require hospitalization is 14,409. 

Change the infection rate to 2.0 and the results are the following:

• Number of infected: 48,520
• Number of deaths: 588
• Number requiring hospitalization: 8248

This is why the San Francisco area is on lock-down. This is why bars and restaurants are being shutdown. That's why there are no NBA games, etc. Social distancing can have a major effect on how this will play out.

However, it doesn't fix the failures of the Trump Administration, Trump's outlandish incompetence. Trump has been a catastrophic failure as a businessman and he has transferred that complete lack of competence to the Presidency. Let's all hope for the sake of the World, that Trump does not get another 4 years as President. What I would like to see would be for Trump to get 20 years (at least) in prison along with many other of his associates of what can only be considered to be a nightmare of an administration. 

COVID-19 Model: Estimated Number of Infected Individuals Based on the Number of Deaths

Background

I hope this post might do the people in the US some good. I created a model to estimate the number of currently infected individuals based on the number of people who have died from COVID-19. 

My motivation for creating the model I'll discuss below originates from my feelings about the absolutely abysmal and utterly incompetent response by the Trump Administration to addressing the threat that COVID-19 posed. 

The Trump Administration had clear warnings that this pandemic was coming. In fact it's being reported that HHS Sec. Azar became alarmed weeks ago about the disease wave that was about to hit the US and Trump would not listen or direct anyone to do anything  related to preparing for the coming pandemic. I'll state here and now that this lack of response, this terrible failure is nothing short of criminal. If Trump were a military officer, he would be prosecuted for dereliction of duty. He certainly has failed the country that he took an oath to protect. 

And Trump has gall to tell everyone that he's not responsible. Or that the actions and policies that he implemented were actually implemented by someone else. Telling lies, upon lies, upon lies is the Trump way. Also Trump constantly states that nothing is his fault. Trump acts as if he's the victim and if you know Trump, that's his typical response. And unfortunately, it's a response that has gotten him out of a lot of trouble in his lying, miserable, criminal and poorly managed life. Trump is responsible, the "buck" stops with the President. All this should never be forgotten. 

As a result of Trump and rest of his sycophantic horde's inaction, the US finds itself in a terrible position with respect to understanding the progress of the spread of COVID-19 because of the failure to develop the capability for mass testing for COVID-19.  The kind of testing program that other countries found the wherewithal to develop, but the Trump Administration seems unable to do.

In response, I realized that there might be a way to estimate the current number of infected individuals based on the number of people who have died from COVID-19. 

The Model

The model is partly based on the Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission, 28 February 2020 by the World Health Organization. (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf) The study is based on 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases. What interested me from the study was death rate based on the age of the infected individuals. That information is shown below:

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death
80 plus	0.148
70-79	0.08
60-69	0.036
50-59	0.013
40-49	0.004
30-39	0.002
20-29	0.002
10-19	0.002
0-9	0.0

Using the information shown above allowed me to create the model you see below. I have included "dummy data" show how it operates:

Age Ranges, Years	Rate of Death	Reported Deaths	Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death)	Projected number of who are infected now	Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death)
80 plus	0.148	200	1351	7644	1131
70-79	0.08	50	625	3536	283
60-69	0.036	25	694	3928	141
50-59	0.013	15	1154	6527	85
40-49	0.004	6	1500	8485	34
30-39	0.002	4	2000	11314	23
20-29	0.002	2	1000	5657	11
10-19	0.002	1	500	2828	6
0-9	0.0	0	1103	6240	0
Infection rate	2.0
Average time of illness until death (weeks)	2.5
Total Infected based on current number of deaths	9928
Total Infected Now	56160
Total number of deaths	303
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals	1714

The number of Reported Deaths (within the age range) is variable. The number of deaths is the input. It's a simple calculation to determine the number of people who were infected when those who died were infected. However, dying from COVID-19 is not like dying from 1918-1919 influenza where you could come down with it in the morning and be dead by the end of the day. It's my understanding that it takes about on average 17 days from onset of symptoms until the person dies. That's about 2.5 weeks as shown in the model. However, in my model that is a changeable parameter. What is also changeable is the infection rate. That is, the number of people an individual will infect. In this example, I have set it to 2.0 because indications have been that the number of infected doubles each week.

Note that the death rate for children 0 to 9 is zero. There have been no reported deaths for children in this age range. That has necessitated some data fudging on my part to get what would seem to be a realistic estimate of the actual number of infected individuals. Children may not die from the virus but they are extremely effective carriers and spreaders, and need to be considered in a model that needs to estimate the number of infected individuals.

So, using the data that I have input in each age range cell (the number of reported deaths by age range), I have estimates for the number of individuals who were infected when those who died were infected. And the number of infected individuals should would be expected to be infected currently. I also estimate the number of deaths that will occur in the future, in this case 2.5 weeks from this point in time. 

One more thing, the number of infected individuals for those 0-9 is based on the average number of infected individuals from 10-19 to 80 plus. Since I'm not an epidemiologist, I considered that the average of all other groups would be the best estimate for the 0-9 age group.

For those interested in receiving a copy of this model

I created this model using Apple's Number spreadsheet. I can convert the spreadsheet to MS Excel. If you are interested in receiving a copy of this model, send me an email. My contact email address can be found at the end of "About Me." 

This is a completely new model. And I'll likely update it once more test data become available. I'll publish additional articles when I have updated and revised the model.

One more thing to note: if you use this model, I suggest inputing the total number of deaths from COVID-19.  I'll have more to say about this issue in future articles.