Quick Model of the Predicted Spread of the Corona Virus

To satisfy my own curiosity, I created a simple model of the multigenerational spread of the CoronaVirus. I'm not an expert on public health so I'm not certain of the assumptions and process of a spreading virus but I know the mathematics is correct. 

Anyway, here's a snapshot of a table based on the following assumptions:

• Generational disease spread originating from one person over 11 generations. (I have no idea if 11 generations is reasonable, but I wanted to provide some sense of how widely the disease could spread.) 
• Each infected person spreads the disease to 3.8 other people. 
• Mortality rate is .02 (2% or crude rate of 2000 per 100,000)
• I guessed that it would take 36 hours for each person to spread the disease to the 3.8 other people. I don't take my timescale all that seriously but it provides some sense of how fast a disease could spread.

The table below shows the spread from single origination point and from 50 origination points. The number of days that it would take to generate these numbers based on my timescale assumption is about 17 days. (These tables have been updated. The death rate in my original tables was .03 not .02. These tables have a death rate of .02.)

Generation	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Number infected in Generation	1	4	14	55	209	792	3,011	11,442	43,478	165,216	627,821	2,385,721
Running total infected	1	5	19	74	283	1,075	4,086	15,527	59,005	224,221	852,043	3,237,763
Total deaths	0	0	0	1	6	21	82	311	1,180	4,484	17,041	64,755
Multiple Origination Points Infected	50	190	722	2,744	10,426	39,618	150,547	572,078	2,173,896	8,260,805	31,391,059	119,286,025
Running total infected	50	240	962	3,706	14,131	53,749	204,296	776,374	2,950,270	11,211,075	42,602,134	161,888,159
Total deaths	1	5	19	74	283	1,075	4,086	15,527	59,005	224,221	852,043	3,237,763

I have to admit, I gasped when I saw these numbers and thought, I hope this isn't the case. But if the government takes action to stem the infection rate from 3.8 to 2, here's what you get:

Generation	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
Number infected in Generation	1	2	4	8	16	32	64	128	256	512	1,024	2,048
Running total infected	1	3	7	15	31	63	127	255	511	1,023	2,047	4,095
Total deaths	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	10	20	41	82
Multiple Origination Points Infected	50	100	200	400	800	1,600	3,200	6,400	12,800	25,600	51,200	102,400
Running total infected	50	150	350	750	1,550	3,150	6,350	12,750	25,550	51,150	102,350	204,750
Total deaths	1	3	7	15	31	63	127	255	511	1,023	2,047	4,095

The situation becomes far, far more manageable. In addition, the actions the government should take should reduce the number of generations the virus is allowed to spread to others. 

Having seen these numbers, it makes sense to me why South Korea is doing mass testing. The faster you can get infected people out of the environment where they can infect other people, the more manageable the epidemic becomes. In addition, this suggests that barriers and changes in people's behavior to slow the spread of the virus would significantly assist in stemming epidemic.

What Should You Do to Protect Yourself, Your Loved Ones and Your Fellow Citizens?

I prefer not to provide anyone with advice regarding what you should do. However, I'll happy to provide you with expert resources. So ...

Here's the CDC website for the CoronaVirus: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

Here's the website for the National Institute of Health: https://www.nih.gov/health-information/coronavirus 

My Comments Regarding the Trump Administration

Now, let's see if in the US, the Trump Administration is able to get it's act together. That news conference on 26 Feb 2020 was not all that reassuring. It was clear that Trump himself is completely clueless about the situation he and his administration are facing and what to do about it. Putting Pence at the head of the effort wasn't reassuring at all. As Governor of Indiana, Pence's policies lead to an outbreak of HIV in southern Indiana. And it took Pence far too long to respond and take actions that addressed the epidemic.(https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/27/mike-pence-hiv-indiana/) 

Let us all continue to monitor the situation going forward.

I'll admit that I have an intense dislike of Trump and the growing group of servile sycophants that surround him. This Administration is corrupt and incompetent, and headed by someone who requires obsequiousness, but careless nothing about competence and truth. 

My opinion has only been reinforced by the Trump Administration's statement that all information, interviews and and statements regarding the CoronaVirus must be cleared through Pence and thus filtered through the administration. In other words, the Administration just muzzled Dr. Anthony Fauci and others. This should scare everyone. Public health should never be politicized, but it appears that it now has. 

I can admit to you that I didn't like the Bush Administration either for a whole host of reasons beginning with lying to get the US into a war with Iraq. But, I can say when it came to concerns about public health, both nationally and internationally, they were not all that bad. 

I feel that I give Administrations credit where credit is due and criticize them when their actions and policies do damage. And from what I have seen, Trump and his Administration has done little to make things better and done lots of damage. And things are only getting worse.


Here's an article from the Washington Post regarding a newly filed whistle blower complaint: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/27/us-workers-without-protective-gear-assisted-coronavirus-evacuees-hhs-whistleblower-says/