Predicting the future outcomes using data from the past has its limits. If the future is "written in stone," then the stones are rarely if ever available when one is doing prognostication. This is especially true when one is attempting to prognosticate what humans will do in the future.
Scientists creating models of climate change have it somewhat "easier" than psychologist and sociologist when it comes to creating more accurate predictive models. Their models are based on more knowable things such as physics and chemistry. And even they have gotten things wrong although over the decades their models have become much more precise as more data has been collected enabling them to adjust their models and also adding more variables to their models. Finally, the addition of greater and greater super computing power hasn't hurt either. There are times that I envy them. But then I take a look at what they're predicting, knowing that their predictions are firmly based, and my blood runs cold. I haven't yet broken into a cold sweat, but I've come close. These models are flashing red warning signals.
And here's something more to consider, one area where these models have not quite been matching up with the actual data is in the timing of events. It appears that the predicted changes are coming at a much faster rate than originally predicted. This seems even to be the case with the more recent models.
But I digress ...
Allow me to get the points I wanted to share.
I wrote what I did above in order to point out an apparent discrepancy between the drug overdose deaths model and the deaths from despair in their predictions for the crude rates and number of deaths from 2017 to 2025. As it turns out the prediction crude rate and number of deaths from drug overdoses are larger in 2025 than the deaths from despair.
What is clear is the drug overdoses has comprised the major portion of deaths from despair. Nevertheless, why does the model for drug overdoses predict a higher number of deaths than the model for deaths of despair.
The problem falls largely with trying to fit a model to the existing data that best explains and enables one to predict the future. Clearly the best model for the drug overdose deaths was the fourth order model that showed greater acceleration than the third order model for the deaths from despair. Deaths from despair include two components suicides and alcohol related deaths that have not been increasing at the rate of drug overdose deaths. Thus when it comes to the actual data, deaths from despair is shifted upwards overall from 1999 to 2017 as you can see, but not accelerating as quickly as drug overdose deaths. Thus the seeming impossibility between the predictions for drug overdoses greater than deaths from despair for 2018 to 2025.
Nevertheless, what is more important is the clarity of the message that both curves are accelerating, meaning that the rate of change is expected to increase year to year. And the rate of change of the curves does not bode well for the future. The hope is that the 1) the rate of change will stop increasing and 2) that soon an inflection point will occur and the curves will begin to point downward. These curves provide a warning namely that based on current data predicting that the future doesn't look promising. I believe that is the major takeaway. Let's hope that these predictions are wrong.
As a side note, I wish the predictions regarding climate change are wrong ... but they're not. And we need to do something about it. But I digress ...
Scientists creating models of climate change have it somewhat "easier" than psychologist and sociologist when it comes to creating more accurate predictive models. Their models are based on more knowable things such as physics and chemistry. And even they have gotten things wrong although over the decades their models have become much more precise as more data has been collected enabling them to adjust their models and also adding more variables to their models. Finally, the addition of greater and greater super computing power hasn't hurt either. There are times that I envy them. But then I take a look at what they're predicting, knowing that their predictions are firmly based, and my blood runs cold. I haven't yet broken into a cold sweat, but I've come close. These models are flashing red warning signals.
And here's something more to consider, one area where these models have not quite been matching up with the actual data is in the timing of events. It appears that the predicted changes are coming at a much faster rate than originally predicted. This seems even to be the case with the more recent models.
But I digress ...
Allow me to get the points I wanted to share.
A Clarification
I wrote what I did above in order to point out an apparent discrepancy between the drug overdose deaths model and the deaths from despair in their predictions for the crude rates and number of deaths from 2017 to 2025. As it turns out the prediction crude rate and number of deaths from drug overdoses are larger in 2025 than the deaths from despair.
Predicted Deaths from Drug Overdoses
Predicted Deaths from Despair
What is clear is the drug overdoses has comprised the major portion of deaths from despair. Nevertheless, why does the model for drug overdoses predict a higher number of deaths than the model for deaths of despair.
The problem falls largely with trying to fit a model to the existing data that best explains and enables one to predict the future. Clearly the best model for the drug overdose deaths was the fourth order model that showed greater acceleration than the third order model for the deaths from despair. Deaths from despair include two components suicides and alcohol related deaths that have not been increasing at the rate of drug overdose deaths. Thus when it comes to the actual data, deaths from despair is shifted upwards overall from 1999 to 2017 as you can see, but not accelerating as quickly as drug overdose deaths. Thus the seeming impossibility between the predictions for drug overdoses greater than deaths from despair for 2018 to 2025.
Nevertheless, what is more important is the clarity of the message that both curves are accelerating, meaning that the rate of change is expected to increase year to year. And the rate of change of the curves does not bode well for the future. The hope is that the 1) the rate of change will stop increasing and 2) that soon an inflection point will occur and the curves will begin to point downward. These curves provide a warning namely that based on current data predicting that the future doesn't look promising. I believe that is the major takeaway. Let's hope that these predictions are wrong.
As a side note, I wish the predictions regarding climate change are wrong ... but they're not. And we need to do something about it. But I digress ...
No comments:
Post a Comment