Deaths from Despair Part 2: Gender as a Factor

Before I get into the data, I want to mention that the 2018 data has been loaded on the CDC's Wonder database (https://wonder.cdc.gov). I'll update some of recent findings using this new data. The new data has changed my projections for 2025. They're less dire than my earlier projections, nevertheless, they're still unacceptable. I'll discuss the updated projections at the end of this article.

My approach in this series of articles is to first consider single factor comparisons before I drill down into multi-factor comparisons and trend analysis. In this article I focus on gender. In later articles I'll focus on age, race, Hispanic, size of the community, etc. I'll also divide the data into two groups: 1) drug and alcohol deaths and 2) suicides, and analyze the data by the same list of single factors used to analyze deaths from despair. After the single factor analysis, I'll focus on multi-factor comparisons. 

Deaths from Despair: Gender Comparisons

From my analysis of suicide and drug-overdose deaths data, I found that there were clear differences between men and women. You'll note that there are clear gender differences when it comes to deaths from despair as you'll note in the figures below.

In terms of the number of deaths per 100,00 (crude rate), men die in much greater numbers than women. The difference is stark. Furthermore, the trend lines are decidedly different. In both cases, the trend is upwards, but with women the curve is linear, meaning the rate remains the same from year to year. However, the trend line for men is curvilinear, meaning that the rate of increase is accelerating.

One positive things to note is that in 2018 for both men and women, the number of deaths dropped from 2017. However, as I noted before, the number of drug overdose deaths for 2017 jumped dramatically from 2016, well beyond my worst case expectations. The hope is that the 2018 results suggest a downward trend, but it may be that the 2018 suggest only a slowing of the rate of increase, not a change in direction. A signal of a change in direction would be that the number of deaths in 2018 was less than 2016 and that's not the case.

Updates to Trend Lines

I want to mention that I have updated the trend line for Total (men and women combined) as a result of the addition of the 2018 data point. Although a 3rd order curve is a slightly better fit, the 2nd order curve better accounts for the addition of the 2018 data. And as you'll note has a lower acceleration rate.

Number of Deaths

The figure below shows the actual number of deaths for women, men and total number. 

The figure above puts the problem the US faces in stark terms. Yes, there was a drop in the total number of deaths from despair from 2017 to 2018, but any way you look at it nearly 157,000 (total) deaths from despair each year is unacceptable as well as all of the unnecessary deaths from despair during this 20 year period from 1999 to 2018. 

What's Going on in America? Why is this happening?

I've started reading the book by Kristof and WuDunn, Tightrope (2020). There are a couple of quotes from their book that I believe are applicable here:

• "Gallup found that Americans are among the most stressed populations in the world, tied with Iranians and even more stressed than Venezuelans." 
• "America now lags behind its peer countries in health care and high-school graduation rates while suffering greater violence, poverty and addiction."

The numbers and the trends provide further support to these quotes. And I believe help explain why these numbers are so high. 

I'll discuss more of the possible reasons why Americans die with such frequency from despair in later articles. 

Gender Differences

Women may be dying less from despair than men -- about 1/3 as many per year. But approximately 45,000 deaths per year in 2017 and 2018 is a number that should be of great concern. And then one examines the number of men dying from despair. Yes, women do seem to be more resilient, but there are levels of stress can overcome even the most resilient.

The nearly 112,000 men dying in the last two years should be significant concern. In contrast approximately 115,000 Americans died each year as a result of conflict in World War II, the bloodiest war in world history. For America the time for that war was just over three and a half years. And here we're seeing over 20 years each year deaths in the range of what you would expect in a full scale war. And these are avoidable deaths. 

Projections to 2025

The following two figures show my current projections from 2019 to 2025. 

These projections are based on my current trend lines as shown in the first figure. 

I have the greatest confidence in the projected trend line for women. Based on everything that we have seen, deaths from despair for women will continue to increase the steady pace shown in the figures. I have less confidence in the trend for men. Accelerated growth is difficult to project into the future.

The trend line to 2025 combining men and women (total) that includes the 2018 data shows about 100,000 fewer deaths projected for 2025 than my earlier projection. That earlier figure is shown below.

217,000 deaths instead of 331,000 is over one third fewer, but 217,000 deaths is still a staggering number of deaths from despair. But even if the number of per year deaths remained the same from year to year from 2018, 157,000 total deaths each year is a staggering number of avoidable deaths, in this case, from despair.