Public Health Alert: Centers for Disease Control records 72,300 Drug Related Deaths in 2017

Here is the article from the New York Times reporting the number of drug related deaths from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) for 2017.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/15/upshot/opioids-overdose-deaths-rising-fentanyl.html?em_pos=small&emc=edit_up_20180815&nl=upshot&nl_art=0&nlid=67594383emc%3Dedit_up_20180815&ref=headline&te=1

In my own analysis https://professionalpredictivemodels.blogspot.com/2018/07/drugs-deaths-1999-to-2016-and.html my worst case prediction was for approximately 69,000 in 2017. To have a worst case exceeded by over 3000 deaths is a stunning development. My worst case prediction for 2018 is for the number of deaths to be between 76,000 and 77,000. And by 2025 my worst case prediction is for the number of drug related deaths to be between 150,000 and 160,000. I have had a difficult time believing the trends that the numbers appear to show. They seem unbelievable, but given that my own worst case, my own worst fears have been outstripped by the actual numbers ... well it now it appears that my own worst case fears may exceeded by reality.

Measuring cortisol — the stress hormone, remotely

Having the ability to remotely and continuously measure the level of a stress-related hormone would seem to be something of real value.

A new wearable biosensor, developed by the Salleo lab at Stanford, measures the amount of cortisol in a person’s sweat. 

Here is the link to the announcement/article: https://www.medicaldesignbriefs.com/component/content/article/mdb/insider/32762?utm_source=TBnewsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=20180808_Medical_Newsletter&eid=376600177&bid=2199287

FCC approves telemedicine pilot for veterans, low-income, rural Americans

I'm actually surprised that this trial had not been approved earlier. Here is the announcement from the FCC.

 This is a link to an article that provide more detail on this program.

https://www.mobihealthnews.com/content/fcc-approves-telemedicine-pilot-veterans-low-income-
rural-americans?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiT1dJNVl6UmxaVFExT1RkaCIsInQiOiJrb1B5Y0drbTRBMzRoMHFcLzBpUlpCTVljT1lBUGhhcUNCazA2RndKOW8zXC94dTFVSU5ua1VYY1NzeHBQazRsYW5hMkdsaTRETndXb01CTDZjN1Zva2VRYmRIUElic0FCc21BYVowSWdFTGVtTSt1Y2kxTXFGSHRuYlNCcitSRU5TIn0%3D

Since this is a pilot program, data should be collected about it's effectiveness. This is something that those who are interested in medical remote monitoring and remote patient management should be interested in following. I know I will.

New York Times Magazine Article: Losing Earth - CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and it's relationship to global average temperature

This is related to public health not just for now but in the future as well. Here's the link to the article: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html This article is definitely worth your time.

I use this as a lead in to something that I posted on my other blog, Professional Predictive Models. I did this analysis on the connection between CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and it's relationship to the global average temperature. The strength of the relationship of these two measurement actually startled me. Here's the link to the blog post: https://professionalpredictivemodels.blogspot.com/2018/08/relationship-between-carbon-dioxide.html

Article: Wearable Technology Is the Future of Healthcare

A bit of light reading about wearable fitness and medical devices.

Here's the link to the article: https://www.hcanews.com/news/wearable-technology-is-the-future-of-healthcare

An interesting quote from the article ...

There is no doubt that the adoption and retention of medical wearable devices will, at least for now and the foreseeable future, outrun that of general fitness wearable devices. This is understandable, as they fulfill a direct and current need for the consumer. However, my belief is, and I assume yours too, if you believe in prevention over treatment, that the more general one of these two has the feared but powerful potential to truly change the status quo. Where now, overall health goes down just before the age of 50, general fitness wearable devices could move up that number.  ...

Drugs Deaths: 1999 to 2016 and Predicting Outcomes in Future Years

I write another (new) blog that dedicated to statistical analysis of a variety of sources of data and to predictive models. I recently wrote an article that is public health related. Although it has nothing to do with medical devices, it nevertheless is related to public health, treatment and sorry to say, death rates.

Here's the link to the article.

https://professionalpredictivemodels.blogspot.com/2018/07/drugs-deaths-1999-to-2016-and.html

Here is a preview:

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has a comprehensive online database known as Wonder (https://wonder.cdc.gov) that is accessible to all. So if you have public health related questions, the data to answer them can be found in Wonder.

Unless you've been living under a rock, you know that deaths from drug overdoses particularly opioid related deaths have been steady increasing. I am interested in not only in the number of deaths, but the rate of increase and what that suggests for the future. I believe you will find the results of my analysis both interesting and troubling, particularly for the future.

Here's a chart showing the number deaths from 1999 to 2016:

...

Using the equation derived from the 2008 to 2016 data, the picture that arises is much more concerning. In fact the crude rate in 2025 is twice the rate predicted by the trend line equation derived from the 1999 to 2016 data. This suggests that the number of drug related deaths would be near 500,000 by the mid 2020s and that the number of drug related deaths during the 2020s would be closer to 1 million to 1,500,000 where the number of deaths per year would be no less than 100,000 and possibly up to 150,000 each year. Most of these deaths would come about as a result of opioid overdoses.