Further updates below.
Here's what my model predicts as of GMT 1830, 17 March 2020:
Predicted Total of infected in the US as of the time of publication: 46,874. Projected number of deaths in 2.5 weeks is 498. The number that will need hospitalization is 7969.
As well as changing the number of deaths, I changed the infection rate to 2.5. Here are the results:
A change in the infection rate from 2.0 to 2.5 nearly doubles the number of infected to 84,760. The projected number of deaths in 2 to 2.5 weeks is 1028. The projected number of people who will require hospitalization is 14,409.
Change the infection rate to 2.0 and the results are the following:
Here's what my model predicts as of GMT 1830, 17 March 2020:
Age Ranges, Years | Rate of Death | Reported Deaths | Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death) | Projected number of who are infected now | Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death) |
80 plus | 0.148 | 27 | 182 | 1032 | 153 |
70-79 | 0.08 | 22 | 275 | 1556 | 124 |
60-69 | 0.036 | 14 | 389 | 2200 | 79 |
50-59 | 0.013 | 10 | 769 | 4351 | 57 |
40-49 | 0.004 | 7 | 1750 | 9899 | 40 |
30-39 | 0.002 | 4 | 2000 | 11314 | 23 |
20-29 | 0.002 | 3 | 1500 | 8485 | 17 |
10-19 | 0.002 | 1 | 500 | 2828 | 6 |
0-9 | 0.0 | 0 | 921 | 5208 | 0 |
Infection rate | 2.0 | ||||
Average time of illness until death (weeks) | 2.5 | ||||
Total Infected based on current number of deaths | 8286 | ||||
Total Infected Now | 46874 | ||||
Total number of deaths | 88 | ||||
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals | 498 | ||||
Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value | 7969 |
Predicted Total of infected in the US as of the time of publication: 46,874. Projected number of deaths in 2.5 weeks is 498. The number that will need hospitalization is 7969.
A Further Update -- Just Passed 100 Deaths Today
Projected number of currently infected: 48,348. Projected number of deaths in approximately 2.5 weeks: 566. The number that will need hospitalization of those currently infected: 8219.Another Update 104 deaths and a change in the infection rate:
As well as changing the number of deaths, I changed the infection rate to 2.5. Here are the results:
Age Ranges, Years | Rate of Death | Reported Deaths | Projected Number of Infected at Present (based on average time of illness until death) | Projected number of who are infected now | Projected number of deaths based on the number currently infected (based on average time of illness until death) |
80 plus | 0.148 | 36 | 243 | 2404 | 356 |
70-79 | 0.08 | 25 | 313 | 3088 | 247 |
60-69 | 0.036 | 17 | 472 | 4667 | 168 |
50-59 | 0.013 | 11 | 846 | 8362 | 109 |
40-49 | 0.004 | 7 | 1750 | 17294 | 69 |
30-39 | 0.002 | 4 | 2000 | 19764 | 40 |
20-29 | 0.002 | 3 | 1500 | 14823 | 30 |
10-19 | 0.002 | 1 | 500 | 4941 | 10 |
0-9 | 0.0 | 0 | 953 | 9418 | 0 |
Infection rate | 2.5 | ||||
Average time of illness until death (weeks) | 2.5 | ||||
Total Infected based on current number of deaths | 8577 | ||||
Total Infected Now | 84760 | ||||
Total number of deaths | 104 | ||||
Projected total number of deaths based on the current number of infected individuals | 1028 | ||||
Projected number who will require hospitalization based on Total Infected Now value | 14409 |
A change in the infection rate from 2.0 to 2.5 nearly doubles the number of infected to 84,760. The projected number of deaths in 2 to 2.5 weeks is 1028. The projected number of people who will require hospitalization is 14,409.
Change the infection rate to 2.0 and the results are the following:
- Number of infected: 48,520
- Number of deaths: 588
- Number requiring hospitalization: 8248
This is why the San Francisco area is on lock-down. This is why bars and restaurants are being shutdown. That's why there are no NBA games, etc. Social distancing can have a major effect on how this will play out.
However, it doesn't fix the failures of the Trump Administration, Trump's outlandish incompetence. Trump has been a catastrophic failure as a businessman and he has transferred that complete lack of competence to the Presidency. Let's all hope for the sake of the World, that Trump does not get another 4 years as President. What I would like to see would be for Trump to get 20 years (at least) in prison along with many other of his associates of what can only be considered to be a nightmare of an administration.
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